Oilprice

2023 - 4 - 3

OPEC OPEC

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Image courtesy of "BBC News"

Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output (BBC News)

Brent crude jumps by more than 5% after major oil countries say they will cut production.

Despite price fluctuations in recent months, there were concerns that global demand for oil would outstrip supply, especially towards the end of the year. The reduction in output is being made by members of the Opec+ oil producers. There were indications from members that they would stick to the same production policy, meaning there would be no fresh cuts, which is why it has come as a huge surprise. The development will also likely further strain ties between the US and Saudi Arabia-led Opec+. The UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman are also making cuts. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said: "We don't think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty - and we've made that clear."

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Oil price surges after surprise Opec+ production cut (The Guardian)

The decision caused an immediate spike in Brent crude futures contracts for May, with the international benchmark for oil prices rising more than 7% to $86 a ...

“We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the US national security council said. BP and Shell were up 4% on Monday morning, making them the top risers on the FTSE 100. The oil price surged to $86 a barrel after the world’s largest producers announced a

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

Oil Prices Jump After Surprise OPEC Production Cut (The New York Times)

Adding to global economic uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday after Saudi Arabia and other major producers announced a surprise cut in crude ...

And higher prices will encourage more investment and production from other producers, like shale oil drillers in the United States. Saudi Arabia needs high oil revenues to support ambitious development schemes aimed at diversifying the kingdom’s economy away from oil. Also hard to gauge is the extent of the damage that may be done to overall oil demand by the recent turmoil in the banking industry. “This is a new Saudi style of unpredictable maneuver,” said Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy. It is not clear how quickly China, the largest oil importer and Saudi Arabia’s most important customer, will recover from its “zero Covid” lockdowns. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.

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Image courtesy of "OilPrice.com"

Citi Doesn't See $100 Oil Despite Shock OPEC Cuts (OilPrice.com)

Oil prices are not going anywhere near $100 per barrel despite the latest round of production cuts according to Citigroup's Ed Morse.

[raised its Brent Crude forecast](/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Raises-Oil-Price-Forecast-Following-OPEC-Cut.html) to $95 from $90 at the end of the year. ADVERTISEMENT supply growth and uncertainty in Chinese demand growth path will keep the market fairly balanced, Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told

Goldman Sachs raises Brent oil price forecasts after OPEC+ output ... (Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide)

Goldman Sachs has raised price forecasts for Brent crude futures LCOc1 following a surprise announcement from OPEC+ that the producer alliance will cut oil ...

benchmark) WTI CLc1 lows that were previously characterized as sufficient to refill, may have contributed to the OPEC+ decision to cut too,” it said. SPR in fiscal year 2023, although (U.S. Goldman Sachs has raised price forecasts for Brent crude futures LCOc1 following a surprise announcement from OPEC+ that the producer alliance will cut oil output further.

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Image courtesy of "NPR"

5 things to know about Saudi Arabia's stunning decision to cut oil ... (NPR)

Oil prices surged after Saudi Arabia and some other oil producers announced they're reducing their oil output. That will send gas prices higher – and ...

Last week the Dallas Fed released its quarterly survey of oil companies. But the U.S. is also the world's largest producer of oil. is the world's largest consumer of oil, by a long shot. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The U.S. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, who have traveled to Riyadh several times in recent months, wrote that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia now sees the U.S. The kingdom consistently denies that production decisions are made with a specific price target in mind. That hurt the budgets of countries like Saudi Arabia, which rely on oil revenue. And cutting production was a reliable way to bring prices back up. Reducing oil production means less supply on the market, which obviously pushes prices higher. "Overall, we think that oil price says might increase by around 10% going forward compared to what we had," says Leon, of Rystad Energy.

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Western Oil Companies Are Not Welcome In Iraq But Russian And ... (OilPrice.com)

Since 2017, Russia and China were working closely together in Iraq in order to secure lucrative oil contracts, and diminish the influence of Western ...

However, the FGI in Baghdad and SOMO argue that under Article 111 of the Constitution oil and gas are under the ownership of all the people of Iraq in all the regions and governorates. [my latest book on the global oil markets](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Complete-Guide-Global-Market-Trading/dp/191274113X), the China-Russia axis feels sufficiently emboldened to signal its true purpose: it is taking full control of the Middle East. The third reason was that it was that in addition to the military elements that Russia had brought to its activities in the Iraq Kurdistan region, the huge new Chinese deal in the south was being done by Zhenhua Oil, an arm of China’s huge defence contractor Norinco. At the end of 2020/beginning of 2021, China decided to use the same strategy in southern Iraq that Russia had used in the northern Kurdistan region. There is no problem shipping or selling any of the oil and gas that China itself does not want, as sanctions currently are only on Iran, not Iraq, and these can easily be circumvented anyway, through methods also analysed in depth in [my latest book on the global oil markets](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Complete-Guide-Global-Market-Trading/dp/191274113X). First, the deal was obviously straight out of the playbook that Russia had used to gain control over the Iraqi Kurdistan oil industry in 2017, as analysed above. Consequently, they believe that all oil and gas developed across all of Iraq should be sold through official channels of the central Federal Government of Iraq in Baghdad. The KRG also maintains that Article 115 states: “All powers not stipulated in the exclusive powers of the federal government belong to the authorities of the regions and governorates that are not organised in a region.” As such, the KRG argues that as relevant powers are not otherwise stipulated in the Constitution, it has the authority to sell and receive revenue from its oil and gas exports. It was then Russia that fomented discord between the KRG in the north and the FGI government in the south, principally by exploiting existing discontent on both sides with the budget payments-for-oil deal that had been agreed between north and south Iraq in 2014. This deal never worked properly, and Russia from 2017 sought to exacerbate this to create much greater discord between north and south Iraq through several methods also analysed in depth in [natural gas ](/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-A-Comprehensive-Guide-To-The-Worlds-Most-Crucial-Fuel.html)centre of the world, the Middle East. And that context is more easily explained if the deal is written not as the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, but rather as the Saudi Arabia/OPEC-China/Russia/Shia Crescent of Power deal.

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The Dirtiest And Cleanest Oil Projects In The World (OilPrice.com)

A first-of-its kind analysis by the nonprofit Rocky Mountain Institute has looked at greenhouse-gas emissions across entire supply chains and comes to an ...

The Eagle Ford’s moderate gas-to-oil ratio leads to moderate levels of GHG emissions mainly from venting and flaring. Wyoming, Bakken No Flare and Texas Eagle Ford Black Oil Zone are also among the cleanest, with GHG emissions of 467 kg, 471 kg and 477 kg of CO2 equivalent per barrel, respectively. OCI says that Bakken No Flare’s upstream GHG emissions are low when the associated gas is well-managed and not flared or otherwise released. The oil field produces 144,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. There are other tools that you can use to compare the carbon and greenhouse gas emissions of different oil fields. This field produces an ultra-light, sweet oil with production zones ranging from oil to gas. It’s one of the country’s oldest and largest fields in the San Joaquin Valley and has been in production for 120 years. Ghawar produces 5,000,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Turkmenistan’s South Caspian basin is the second worst polluter while the Permian Basin in West Texas ranks third with the majority of their emissions coming from upstream production. A first-of-its kind analysis by the nonprofit Rocky Mountain Institute has looked at greenhouse-gas emissions across entire supply chains and found that oil and natural gas fields in Russia, Turkmenistan and Texas are the worst polluters on our planet. Another dilemma--the fast pace of transition to renewable sources only appears to be adding to the total energy supply but is not doing much to displace oil and gas demand to any appreciable degree. Climate modeling in recent years indicates that it is still hypothetically possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C--the level sought by the Paris Agreement--even given currently committed fossil-fuel-emitting infrastructure as long as no new fossil-fuel-emitting infrastructure is built.

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Image courtesy of "Reuters"

Oil surges as OPEC+ surprise output cuts shake markets (Reuters)

Oil prices surged on Monday, posting the biggest daily rise in nearly a year, after a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut more production jolted markets.

"These cuts may be signaling that OPEC+ believes that there are enough recessionary indicators in the market ... (and) will further tighten the oil market for the rest of the year and could push prices above $100 per barrel". Register for free to Reuters and know the full story [unadvisable](/business/energy/us-sees-opec-output-cuts-unadvisable-2023-04-02/) and some analysts questioned OPEC+'s rationale for the extra production cut. [Goldman Sachs](/business/energy/goldman-sachs-raises-brent-oil-price-forecasts-after-opecs-surprise-output-cuts-2023-04-02/) lowered its end-2023 production forecast for OPEC+ by 1.1 million bpd and raised its Brent price forecasts to $95 and $100 a barrel for 2023 and 2024, respectively, it said in a note. The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.

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Image courtesy of "CBS News"

Here's what OPEC's shock oil production cuts mean for U.S. gas prices (CBS News)

With the price of Brent crude, the international oil standard, jumping about 6% to $85 a barrel on Monday, motorists should expect prices at the pump to rise ...

"Will the size of the cut really be a million [barrels per day] plus or will it be something less? Gas prices soared to an average of $5.02 in June of 2022, stoked by the war in Ukraine, with prices at the pump in California soaring well above $6. Gas prices usually rise about 30 cents a gallon between spring and summer, Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, told CBS News. By summer, the average national price for regular gas is likely to be around $4 a gallon. Grossman said gas prices this time of year typically hover between $2 and $3.50 per gallon. From Sunday to Monday, average gas prices stayed steady at $3.50 a gallon,

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