CPI

We forecast headline CPI increased by 0.4% MoM in January, which would be an acceleration from the recent pace. We also expect the YoY rate to fall from ...

The basket of goods and services included in the CPI is designed to represent the purchases of the typical urban consumer and is periodically updated to reflect changes in consumer spending patterns. We also expect the YoY rate to fall from 6.5% to 6.1%. The data from the UK showed that ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in December while annual wage inflation, ex-bonus, rose to 6.7%. In terms of the headline, we expect CPI inflation to register its firmest MoM gain since October, posting a strong 0.4% increase. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. “We forecast a firm 0.4% MoM gain in the core CPI series. The Consumer Price Index, calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a measure of the average change in prices over time in a fixed basket of goods and services consumed by households. “We expect US core CPI to have risen by 0.3% MoM in January, while higher energy prices should see headline CPI inflation up by 0.5%. “We expect consumer prices to rise by 0.4% from December, and by 0.3% excluding energy and food (core rate). A 0.4% MoM core CPI print (or possibly even 0.5%) would give the Fed near-term ammunition to argue for a May rate hike. [CPI](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cpi-data-expectations-analyzing-january-us-inflation-release-202302140700) is expected to decline to 6.2% from 6.5% in December while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen at 5.5% from 5.7%. “We expect CPI growth edged down to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in December (YoY).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI print for January 2023 on Tuesday, February 14 at 13:30 GMT.

You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. This is representative of an increase in the weight of core goods within the basket while core services decreased. However, annual headline inflation is expected to fall to 6.2% YoY from 6.5% YoY, the lowest since October 2021. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins. The market's expectation of the Fed's peak rate will likely be pushed above the 5.2% price for July this year. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins. The BLS is switching to a one-year lookback window for weighting instead of the former two-year window. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. While the weighting for Used Cars, which has turned deflationary, will decrease by 1.1pp. (Year over Year data, which is not seasonally adjusted, is not revised).

Markets in Europe enjoyed a positive but cautious start to the week, with the FTSE100 posting a new record close, helped by European natural gas prices ...

Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information. Where such information is issued or promulgated to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CMC Markets Singapore accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analysis or report, to the extent required by law. This stickiness in prices is likely to be reflected in a similar uptick in inflationary pressure, with headline CPI expected to rise 0.4% on a monthly basis, and by 6.2% year-on-year. While US 2-year yields have jumped sharply in the last week or so, US stock markets still appear to be working on the basis of rate cuts within the next 12 months. A move above 1.0800 targets a move towards 1.0920. Below 1.1960 retargets the 1.1835 area, while a move above 1.2200 argues for a move towards 1.2300. Headline CPI in the US has been trending lower for several months now, so much so that it prompted Fed chair Jay Powell at the recent Fed meeting to acknowledge that there were some disinflationary trends playing out in the US economy, which wasn’t an unreasonable observation to make. Today’s numbers for January could go some way to reinforcing the more hawkish commentary we’ve seen from various Fed officials since the January rate meeting, as well as upend US stock markets even further. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, however wages are expected to continue rising from the 6.4% seem in November, up to 6.5%, and perhaps even higher. Before that we get the latest wages and unemployment numbers from the UK for the three months to December. [non-farm payrolls](/en-sg/trading-guides/what-are-non-farm-payrolls) figure of 517,000 for January, earlier this month. US markets were also reasonably buoyant after losing ground last week, with the gains fairly solid across the board, ahead of today’s US January consumer price index (CPI) inflation report.

With earnings season winding down and S&P 500 profits forecast to be down 5% from last year, attention is turning back to economic data. Following a much ...

Last week, I wrote about the range oil has been hovering in and I’m watching this to see if we finally break out, one way or the other, from this range. So if you lost money, dinner bets or simply pride by betting on the Eagles, that could just be the beginning of your problems. Therefore, tomorrow’s CPI report and then later in the week, data on retail sales and housing, could add some much needed color to the economic picture. I’m also watching defense stocks in the wake of recent news about objects flying around the U.S. This was the worst week of the year so far, in what, all in all, has been a tremendously strong start. Economists are expecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 6.2%.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all up more than 1% on Monday, Feb. 13. · The positive start to the week came amid optimism about upcoming inflation data.

Shares of rivals Global Payments ( [GPN](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=GPN)) and PayPal Holdings ( [PYPL](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=PYPL)) lost ground as well. [NCLH](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=NCLH)), Carnival Corporation ( [CCL](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=CCL)), and Royal Caribbean Group ( [RCL](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=RCL)) climbed. CF Industries Holdings ( [CF](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=CF)) shares tumbled on an analyst downgrade. Shares of booking sites Booking Holdings ( [BKNG](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=BKNG)) and Expedia Group ( [EXPE](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=EXPE)) were up. Shares of Amazon ( [AMZN](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=AMZN)) gained, and Meta Platforms ( [META](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=META)) shares climbed on a report the parent of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp is planning more layoffs. [MSFT](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=MSFT)) led the Dow as its shares rose 3%, while Intel ( [INTC](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=INTC)) and Salesforce ( [CRM](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=CRM)) shares picked up 2%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped. The U.S. Medical products and services distributor Henry Schein ( [HSIC](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=HSIC)) announced a $400 million [stock buyback](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/041702.asp), and shares gained. dollar rose against the euro and yen but fell versus the pound. Chevron ( [CVX](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=CVX)) and The Walt Disney Company ( [DIS](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=DIS)) were the only stocks in the Dow to decline. Shares of Apple ( [AAPL](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=AAPL)), Cisco Systems ( [CSCO](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=CSCO)), and IBM ( [IBM](https://www.investopedia.com/markets/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=IBM)) added 1%.

Singapore shares failed to hang on to opening gains and finished lower on Monday, as caution prevailed ahead of the release of key United States inflation ...

Earlier on Monday, the lender posted a 69 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit to a record $2.3 billion for its fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2022. Thomson Medical Group was Monday’s second-most active counter, rising 5.6 per cent to 7.6 cents after 37 million shares changed hands. The key Straits Times Index fell 35.99 points or 1.1 per cent to 3,324.70. This followed the biggest weekly decline in the US’ S&P 500 and Nasdaq since December 2022. DBS Bank led the pack, falling 2 per cent to $35.32. Singapore shares failed to hang on to opening gains and finished lower on Monday, as caution prevailed ahead of the release of key United States inflation figures on Tuesday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) or retail inflation for January rose to a three-month high at 6.52 per cent, data released by the Ministry of Statistics ...

- Earlier the retail inflation rate eased down to 5.72 per cent in December. It was 5.88 per cent in November, and 6.77 per cent in October 2022. CPI inflation for January rises to 3-month high at 6.52%

Vincent Reinhart of Mellon Investments Corporation talks about what to expect from the January CPI report. (Source: Bloomberg)

The US benchmark bond yields spiked after the US January job data as markets are now pricing in a slower exit of the Fed's rate hike cycle after May at the ...

Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information. [US 10-year bond yield](/en-sg/instruments/us-t-note-10-yr-cash) jumped from 3.4% to 3.7% in the last two weeks, and the [US 2-year bond yield](/en-sg/instruments/us-t-note-2-yr-cash) rose from 4.2% to 4.5% during the same timeframe. The US benchmark bond yields spiked after the US January job data as markets are now pricing in a slower exit of the Fed’s rate hike cycle after May at the earliest. In contrast, the typical growth sector, Telecommunication Services (XLC) down 3% in the last five days, suggesting the sector rotation has changed course amid the Fed’s tweaks. The inflation positively correlated commodities, and oil markets regained strength by climbing 9% in two weeks. The US inflation trajectory is still facing uncertainties amid recent strong labour markets, and a pickup in energy prices recently, which may put stocks' rally on pause should the CPI data come in higher-than-estimated.

Full coverage of the Labor Department's report on the consumer-price index for January.

October and November increases were also bigger.\n\nThe new data also reflects an update to the weights of goods and services in the spending basket to capture changes in consumer preference. The Labor Department previously updated these every two years but starting with Tuesday's release will revise them annually. The January consumer-price index includes annual updates to historical seasonal factors, which means many of the Labor Department’s prices figures have changed a little.\n\nUsing the new seasonal adjustments, both overall and core inflation cooled less toward the end of 2022 than previously thought.

A new report on inflation is due this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that the annual rate of price increases will slow to 6.2% in ...

The next CPI report is due on March 14.] [What is the current inflation rate?] [The current rate of inflation is 6.5% on annual basis. [Causes of inflation ] [A variety of factors are contributing to the high level of inflation Americans have been experiencing for over a year. It measures changes in how much the average urban American consumer pays across the board for goods and services over a given period of time.] [Core CPI ] [Core CPI is a measure of the change in consumer prices excluding energy and food which are generally the most volatile components of CPI. [Fed's latest decision](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/02/01/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-meeting-live-updates/11135680002/), anticipating that the central bank was closer to pausing rate hikes. Economists expect core CPI for January to drop to 5.5% on an annual basis from 5.7% in December. These revisions resulted from annual adjustments the BLS makes to account for seasonal variation in CPI data. These adjustments correct for price changes that correspond to seasonal demand. It also found that prices rose by 0.2% in November versus the previously reported 0.1% increase. [Dow futures] [Futures trading for the Dow Jones Industrial Average are moving slightly higher leading up to the report's release. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that the annual rate of price increases will slow to 6.2% in January following a decline to 6.5% in December. [Fed 2023 schedule: ] [Here's when the Fed will meet again](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/13/federal-reserve-2023-meeting-schedule/10887436002/) [Fed rate hike ] [The big question is what will this CPI report mean for the Fed. A new report on inflation is due this morning.

Have you ever wondered what exactly goes into the Consumer Price Index? Many people – and certainly the majority of financial institutions and investors ...

Included under “recreation services” you’ll find the surprising inclusion of video rentals, as well as how many “video discs” and other related media were costing consumers. Remember that the next time you have a hot dog. “For example, people presumably did not go out to eat much in 2021,” Swanson pointed out. Wondering how the price of pastry tarts is affecting you and your neighbors? That metric is given a weighted relative importance 0.026 overall. The CPI has you covered, measuring how expense tarts specifically are and whether or not that number has changed substantially. When combined with lunch meats, frankfurters have a weighted relative importance 0.0252. For context, Blockbuster Video shuttered its operations in 2014, but Redbox Automated Retail was acquired by Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment in August 2022, keeping video kiosks alive somewhere. Seasonings overall had a weighted relative importance of 0.34 total — olives included. All numbers are from the December 2022 CPI report. Lumped in with fabric and supplies, how sewing machines were priced is all part of the “other recreational goods” portion of the report. For a nation as large as the U.S., looking at that slice of America means items and services included need to be representative of what the country as a whole is experiencing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

Consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in January and 6.4 percent annually, according to Labor Department's consumer price index released Tuesday, a jump in ...

[Consumer Price Index](https://thehill.com/tag/consumer-price-index/) [inflation](https://thehill.com/tag/inflation/) [Michelle Bowman](https://thehill.com/people/michelle-bowman/) [Finance](https://thehill.com/finance/) [Finance](https://thehill.com/finance/) [Technology](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/) [Finance](https://thehill.com/finance/) [See All](https://thehill.com/finance/) On the year, grocery prices are up 11.3 percent, energy prices are up 8.7 percent and housing costs are up 7.9 percent, putting a dent in Americans’ finances. The price of used cars is one of the few areas where inflation is easing, with prices dropping 11.6 percent annually after skyrocketing in previous years. Food prices rose 0.5 percent in January, while housing costs rose 0.7 percent, making up for the bulk of the increase. “While there are costs and risks to tightening monetary policy to lower inflation, I see the costs and risks of allowing inflation to persist as far greater,” Bowman said. Consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in January and 6.4 percent annually, according to Labor Department’s consumer price index released Tuesday, a jump in inflation which could encourage the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates.

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

Markets expect the Fed over its next two meetings in March and May to raise its overnight borrowing rate another half a percentage point from its current target range of 4.5%-4.75%. January's CPI report will take some time to analyze, as the BLS changed its methodology in how it reports the index. That number rose 0.2% in January and was up 4% from a year ago. The Fed also changed how it computes an important component called owners' equivalent rent, a measure of how much property owners could get if they rented. "If retail sales also show strength tomorrow, the Fed may have to increase their funds rate target to 5.5% in order to tame inflation." There's widespread belief that the economy could tip into at least a shallow recession later this year or early in 2023. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. "Inflation is easing but the path to lower inflation will not likely be smooth," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December. Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.

Consumer Price Index data released on Tuesday showed that price increases picked up briskly on a monthly basis last month. That was true across both key ...

The data for January showed price increases picking up again on a monthly basis, although the year-over-year numbers continued to show some slowdown in inflation. “Markets are vulnerable in the short-run for that reason.” The prospect of a continued drop in the pace of price rises had raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon end its campaign of raising interest rates, which tends to lower inflation but also raise borrowing costs for consumers and companies. Having risen ahead of the data release, futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to bet on the index before markets officially open, initially moved sharply lower before recovering to trade roughly flat for the day. [its profits fell](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/tyson-shares-slump-with-falling-meat-prices-hitting-profits?cmpid=BBD021023_TRADE&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230210&utm_campaign=trade#xj4y7vzkg) in the first quarter as consumers cut back on purchasing its products, especially more expensive items like beef and pork. The average price of large eggs dropped from more than $5 a carton earlier this year to less than $3 in February, the department said. A price index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased in January, as did another for cereals and bakery products. Much of the inflation slowdown in recent months has come from a moderation in price increases for goods and commodities. Food prices grew 0.5 over the month, ticking up slightly compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in December. That trend continued in January, with services prices excluding energy continuing to increase rapidly, partly owing to the jump in rental and other housing costs. Goods, including used cars and apparel for women, dropped in price on a monthly basis, but even the slowdown in physical products was less pronounced than it had previously had been. The price index was up 6.4 percent in January compared with a year earlier.

Investors digested the latest consumer price index report and assessed the Federal Reserve's tightening path.

Many investors have been concerned about the pace of rate hikes, and the prospect of rates remaining elevated for longer as they fear this will cause the U.S. A series of Fed officials have indicated that future rate decisions will depend on economic data. [10-year Treasury](/quotes/US10Y/) yield edged up 3 basis points to 3.75%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%. These measures have included eight interest rate hikes since March 2022. The yield on the [2-year Treasury](/quotes/US2Y/) climbed 6 basis points to 4.60%.

U.S. inflation moderated in January from historic highs but the pace of easing showed signs of leveling off. The consumer-price index, a closely watched ...

The consumer price index showed firmer price pressures in January, as the annual CPI inflation rate dipped less than expected. The core CPI inflation rate, ...

In January, the CPI proxy for core nonhousing services saw prices rise 0.5% on the month, while the 3-month annualized inflation rate held at 5.6%. The best clue to PCE health services inflation won't come from the CPI but from Thursday's producer price index. After the CPI report, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% in volatile morning trade. Hospital service prices rose 0.5% on the month. The CPI inflation rate eased to 6.4% from 6.5% the prior month vs. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more linked to Fed decisions, rose 6 basis point to 4.6%. The annual core inflation rate eased to 5.6% vs. The core CPI rose 0.4% vs. The good news for markets that has sparked the current S&P 500 rally attempt is that wage growth has showed a surprising deceleration. The consumer price index showed firmer price pressures in January, as the annual CPI inflation rate dipped less than expected. The core CPI inflation rate peaked at a 40-year-high 6.6% in September. The core CPI inflation rate, which strips out food and energy, also came in hotter than predicted.

U.S. consumer prices increased from the prior month in January but met expectations, while the underlying trend showed inflation is slowing, likely keeping ...

I think what you're going to continue to see and hear is the market to be unsure about what the Fed does next. "So I don't think any of this necessarily in and of itself changes expectations. “I don’t think (this report) moves the needle for the Fed, and I suspect they’re taking a hard look at the data. "Consensus is now in line with the Fed. "I think (this report) justifies the rise in the two-year yields over the last several weeks and a bit of the resetting in the bond market. So, I think in a lot of ways it’s still very easy to make the case that it looks like inflation will continue to soften as the year progresses and I’m sure this comes as an enormous source of relief at the Fed. So, I think that comes as a big source of relief on some level and in the context of shelter has been doing a lot of the damage from an inflation perspective, particularly over recent months. "I think the bond market is right on the short end that two hikes in the next couple of months are warranted. "The shelter component continues to be such a huge driver of inflation … That said, the market has already re-priced in favor of more tightening from the Fed since the release of Jan payrolls.” “The much longed for, and in several places expected, peak in inflation has been postponed again. The big picture is that the inflation data clearly show that the market is too optimistic about inflation dropping enough this year to allow the Fed to start cutting rates.

US consumer prices rose briskly at the start of the year, a sign of persistent inflationary pressures that could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest ...

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE. Stocks wavered Tuesday after the January consumer price index report showed that inflation grew ...

[Palantir](/quotes/PLTR/)— Shares jumped 18% on the back of [quarterly results](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/palantir-q4-earnings-2022.html)that came in ahead of analysts' expectations, according to Refinitiv. CNBC Pro subscribers can see what to expect for the entire week [here](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/10/investors-will-have-their-eyes-on-the-consumer-price-index-in-the-week-ahead.html). [Arista Networks](/quotes/ANET/)— The cloud stock advanced less than 1% after reporting earnings and revenue that came in ahead of the consensus estimate set by analysts polled by Refinitiv. [Coca-Cola](/quotes/KO/) beat revenue expectations for the fourth quarter. [Palantir](/quotes/PLTR/) — Shares of the software company surged 18% in extended trading after Palantir reported it made a profit in the fourth quarter, the first GAAP profit in the company's history. "Instead, it reflects a view that the current valuation is difficult to reconcile with the quality of the underlying assets and cash flow power through a cycle." "That of course is how that market feels today and can always change but for now, only the December 2023/January 2024 fed funds futures contract does a rate below 5% show up and barely," he added. [The S&P 500](/quotes/.SPX/) slipped 0.52%, and the [Nasdaq Composite](/quotes/.IXIC/) ticked 0.80% lower. [Restaurant Brands](/quotes/QSR/) — Shares of the Burger King parent dipped 3% after it reported 72 cents in earnings per share for the fourth quarter, two cents below Wall Street estimates, according to FactSet. That was [slightly higher](#107194186-IMfXLRo8U) than economist estimates of the basket of goods and services rising 0.4% on the month and 6.2% on the year, according to a survey by Dow Jones. "That could be the recipe for a soft landing, but it remains to be seen when the Fed will shift away from rate hikes and if the labor market will lose its resiliency." Before the number was released, JPMorgan's trading desk predicted that an annual increase of 6.4% to 6.5% would trigger an S&P 500 loss of about 1.5% on Tuesday.

Tuesday's Consumer Price Index data could hold big clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.

of Anti-Woke, Inc.](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/13/anti-woke-ramaswamy-2024-election-00082414),” is eying the presidency. (Politico) [Chinese technology](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/business/energy-environment/ford-catl-electric-vehicle-battery.html). (NYT) (FT) (Bloomberg) de la Merced](https://www.nytimes.com/by/michael-j-de-la-merced), [Lauren Hirsch](https://www.nytimes.com/by/lauren-hirsch) and One prominent market watcher even [forecasts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/mr-yen-says-ueda-may-raise-rates-by-october-currency-to-gain?srnd=markets-vp) the B.O.J. The carmaker also plans to [cut 3,800 positions](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-eliminate-3800-engineering-administration-jobs-europe-2023-02-14/)across Europe as it transitions to E.V. [According to Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/top-us-china-diplomats-weigh-first-meeting-since-balloon-drama?cmpid=BBD021423_MKTEU&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230214&utm_campaign=marketseurope), Blinken could speak with Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, at the Munich Security Conference. The Supreme Court will soon decide a case that asks if algorithms that recommend content to users should be defined as editors. A spokesman for committee Republicans told DealBook that Scott wants to balance the need to protect consumers while promoting innovation, the same position as Toomey.

Bond traders are keeping their expectations for medium-term US inflation at elevated levels as signs of persistent price pressures suggest the Federal ...

While the rise in the consumer price index for January matched consensus estimates, revisions left year-on-year rates higher than economists expected. The report showed disinflationary momentum in core goods is flagging. Bond traders are keeping their expectations for medium-term US inflation at elevated levels as signs of persistent price pressures suggest the Federal Reserve has more to do in terms of tightening policy.

Stocks were lower in volatile trading Tuesday after data showed consumer prices cooled in January, but at a slower pace than hoped. The Dow Jones Industrial ...

Investors were watching this data to gauge how much more the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year to tame rising prices.\n\nSeveral Fed officials spoke following the release of the CPI report Tuesday about where they think interest rates will go from here.\n\nNew York Fed President John Williams said that he is “confident that the gears of monetary policy will continue to move in a way that will bring inflation down to 2 percent. The two-year yield, a barometer for expectations about the federal funds rate, has climbed in February following both Tuesday’s inflation data and a stronger-than-expected jobs report earlier this month.\n\nIn addition to the CPI report, investors will get retail sales data and jobless claims this week, which are important in understanding the strength of the consumer and the condition of the tight labor market. We will stay the course until our job is done.”\n\nPhiladelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that at some point in 2023, he expects “the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work.”\n\nIn an interview with Bloomberg TV Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the CPI results came in about as expected, but inflation is coming down slowly and “there is going to be a lot more inertia—a lot more persistence to inflation than maybe we’d all want.”\n\nThe Fed tightened financial conditions at a dramatic pace over the past year in a bid to dampen decades-high inflation—a key factor behind last year’s market selloff.

Although inflation continued to ease last month, the CPI report still ensures more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

– David Rosenberg, founder and president of [Rosenberg Research](https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/) (opens in new tab) [earnings](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks). – John Luke Tyner, portfolio manager at [Aptus Capital Advisors](https://aptuscapitaladvisors.com/) (opens in new tab) [natural gas](https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t015-c008-s001-how-investors-can-bet-on-rising-natural-gas-prices.html) costs and another meaty rise (0.5%) in food costs. – Sal Guatieri, senior economist at [BMO Capital Markets](https://capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/) (opens in new tab) [Federal Reserve still has work to do](https://moneyweek.com//economy/us-economy/605702/is-us-inflation-accelerating-again-figures-suggest-the-fed-has-further-to) (opens in new tab) to tame inflation. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% amid a slight pickup in core goods and a solid 0.5% rise in core services prices. – Gargi Chaudhuri, head of [iShares Investment Strategy, Americas](https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies) (opens in new tab) Clothing and vehicle [insurance](https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/insurance/car-insurance) costs also posted outsized gains. Economists surveyed by [Dow Jones](https://www.dowjones.com/) (opens in new tab) were looking for the monthly inflation rate to rise 0.4% last month. "There was more than the usual degree of mystery and intrigue ahead of the January CPI report, given the BLS's reweighting changes (now annually instead of biennially). However, the slowdown in year-over-year inflation decelerated in January and that will probably support our view of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) argument that it is not done raising rates."

Prices rose 6.4 percent in January compared to the month before, but rose month over month. The Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.

A top concern is that the remaining sources of inflation — many of which are tied to the hot labor market and rising wages — will be difficult to tame. It’s probably going to be bumpy.” He said that that expectation was confirmed by the unexpectedly hot January jobs report and that if the economic data “continued” to come in stronger than expected, “we would certainly raise rates more” than officials anticipate now. And Goldman Sachs cut the probability that the U.S. Now the Fed is more focused on a narrow measure of inflation that looks at certain services, including education, medical care and hospitality, where wage pressures and labor shortages can keep pushing prices up. The Fed’s base policy rate, known as the federal funds rate, sits between 4.5 and 4.75 percent, a level that is steep enough to slow the economy. “And that is something that is just going to affirm their commitment to continue raising rates at least two times.” Fed leaders are planning for a few more increases of that scale, and then they’ll hold for a while and let high the higher rates take hold. But the Fed keeps repeating that its raising of interest rates to slow the economy is far from over, and there is much that could thwart its future efforts. Rent in January was up 0.7 percent over the month in comparison with 0.8 percent in the previous report. No part of the Fed’s job until now has been easy, and the central bank had to scramble to get inflation down from 40-year highs last year. That’s the good news,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former head of the Congressional Budget Office and the president of the conservative American Action Forum. But finishing the job requires targeting some of the most persistent sources of inflation and keeping the pressure on.

While consumer prices climbed at a 6.4% annual pace in January, marking a slowdown from December, the monthly increase sped up to 0.5%.

US CPI data provided little cues on the future path of Fed policy, reasserting the broader consolidation backdrop in EUR/USD. What is the outlook and what ...

[EUR/USD](/sg/forex/markets-forex/jp-eur-usd) has been hovering in a 1.0650-1.0850 range, also capped by the 200-period moving average on the four-hour charts. All shares prices are delayed by at least 20 mins. On the downside, there is immediate support at the lower end of the recent range of 1.0650. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins. Any break above the immediate resistance area of 1.0800-1.0850 could trigger a minor double bottom (the February lows), opening way toward 1.0950. Hawkish remarks by Fed officials on Monday suggested the Fed isn’t close to pausing its rate hiking cycle.

Bond traders were once again forced to rethink the Federal Reserve's path after inflation data showed prices remain stubbornly high. They now expect the Fed ...

Rates stabilized at elevated levels as the day progressed yet could see a renewed push higher in Asia trading hours. Bond traders were once again forced to rethink the Federal Reserve’s path after inflation data showed prices remain stubbornly high. Three- and five-year yields also reached 2023 highs.

With new data showing inflation has been stronger than previously reported, the Fed is seen keeping rates higher, longer.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the majority of market participants expect the federal-funds effective rate target to rise to 5.50% this summer, up from a high of 5.25% that was widely expected earlier in the month. Core PCE inflation averaged a 2.9% annualised rate in the three months ended in December, Caldwell says. In January, energy prices rose 2.0% over the month as gasoline prices rose 2.4% and utility (piped) gas services prices rose 6.7%. The latest data has prompted a shift in expectations for the Fed raising rates higher and holding them in place longer. Excluding shelter costs, the rest of core CPI has averaged just 1.5% annualised over the past three months, according to Caldwell. Previously, core CPI averaged a 3.1% annual rate in the three months through December, according to Caldwell, "but the BLS now estimates it at 4.3%." "This year, the revisions were quite large, as the pandemic has produced large changes in the seasonal pattern of price changes." "Although new data shows a lesser decline in core inflation at the end of 2022 than previously thought, we shouldn’t be overly discouraged," Caldwell says. In addition, much of the attention hasn’t been on the January CPI report itself but on the picture painted by routine revisions to 2022′s inflation data. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% in January, also in line with forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an overall rise of 0.5% in the Consumer Price Index for January, in line with consensus estimates, for its fastest month-over-month reading since October 2022. While the trend toward lower inflation appears to be still on track, it’s not just the direction of inflation that matters to the outlook for the economy, markets, and Federal Reserve policy but also the levels.

European markets edged higher yesterday, closing well off their highs of the day after US CPI for January came in slightly hotter than expected.

Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information. Where such information is issued or promulgated to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CMC Markets Singapore accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analysis or report, to the extent required by law. [USD/JPY](/en-sg/instruments/usd-jpy) – appears to want to go higher having broken above the 50-day SMA, as well as above the 133.00 and Kumo cloud resistance. This seems fairly modest when compared to the bigger slowdowns we’ve seen in both the US and Europe, where headline inflation is much lower. After yesterday’s US CPI report all eyes will shift towards the January retail sales report for evidence that the US consumer is feeling the effects of higher prices and weaker demand. [EUR/GBP](/en-sg/instruments/eur-gbp) – has declined for 7 days in a row, with support back to the 50-day SMA at 0.8780/90, and the 100-day SMA at 0.8740. [EUR/USD](/en-sg/instruments/eur-usd) – ticked up to the 1.0800 area tripping stops through 1.0780 before retreating. [GBP/USD](/en-sg/instruments/gbp-usd) – squeezed up the 1.2270 area before slipping back. If anything, today’s report is unlikely to confirm the narrative of a US consumer feeling that pressure. Below 1.1930 retargets the 1.1835 area, while we need to see a move through 1.2300 to reopen a move towards 1.2400. Unlike the US and Europe, headline CPI in the UK is proving be a lot stickier having fallen only modestly from its October peaks of 11.1%, with today’s January CPI number expected to see a fall to 10.3%. With inflation well north of 10% it is perhaps fortunate in some respects that wages data is also trending higher, rising to 6.7% for the 3 months to December, and new record highs outside of the pandemic.

Asian equities were mixed on light volumes in advance of today's US CPI release as markets appear to have caught onto the Fed's focus on inflation.

The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech fell -0.24% and -1.01% respectively on volume -12.85% from yesterday which is 77% of the 1-year average. Main Board short turnover fell -41.92% from yesterday which is 52% of the 1-year average as 12% of turnover was short turnover. CNY gained +0.04% versus the US dollar, Treasury bonds rallied, while copper and steel diverged. Shanghai, Shenzhen, and STAR were mixed +0.28%, -0.08%, and -0.13% respectively on volume -6.6% from yesterday which is 101% of the 1-year average. Shanghai managed a small gain +0.28% while the Shenzhen slipped -0.08% as value sectors outperformed in China as well. Value factors outpaced growth factors while small caps edged large caps by a small percentage. Top sub-sectors were petrochemical, chemical fiber, and soft drinks while catering tourism, telecom, and internet were among the worst. Worth noting, we are one of the top US owners of the Shenzhen listed stock, even more than one of the five largest US asset managers. Hang Seng closed above the 21k level as value sectors had a strong day in both markets. Remember Hong Kong Exchange, AIA, and Macao casino stocks are technically not Chinese companies due to their corporate domicile being in Hong Kong. Link REIT fell -1.37% after yesterday’s fall of -12.82% after announcing issuing more stock. Hong Kong’s most heavily traded were Tencent -2.07%, Alibaba HK -1.44%, Meituan -0.34%, and JD.com HK -1.83%.

Moderating inflation may not be enough to keep the Federal Reserve from continuing rate hikes, as the latest consumer pricing index released Tuesday showed ...

Consumer prices accelerated in January suggesting that the Fed was far from pausing its interest rate hiking campaign.