Debt

The slump in the world's biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, threatening to unleash waves of credit turmoil ...

Janet Yellen urges lawmakers to raise borrowing limit sooner rather than later to avoid default.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in a letter to Congress on Thursday, said the U.S. has reached its debt limit, and has begun resorting to "extraordinary ...

The U.S. Currently the U.S. "The period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty," Yellen wrote. Yellen had already previously warned the U.S. Raising the debt limit used to be a routine exercise for Congress but it has become increasingly fraught. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in a letter to Congress on Thursday, said the U.S.

THE slump in the world's biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, threatening to unleash waves of credit turmoil ...

The political fight has the potential to spook markets across the globe, adding to the economic turmoil facing US investors.

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said she had begun using accounting maneuvers to keep the United States from defaulting on its debt.

The Treasury Department also oversees the Federal Financing Bank, which can issue up to $15 billion of its own debt that is not subject to the debt limit. “It depends on receipts, it depends on how the economy is doing, it depends on how companies are doing,” Mr. Frost added that the Treasury Department usually has a daily cash balance of $600 billion to $700 billion, but that during the 2021 debt limit standoff, there were days when it grew painfully close to zero. Big government expenses in February could mean that X-date, when the government runs out of cash, comes sooner than anticipated, while robust April tax receipts could buy more time for extraordinary measures to keep the lights on. Another option would be for the Treasury Department to suspend new issuance of State and Local Government Series securities. Typically, funds that are not being used for those purposes are invested in Treasury securities that are subject to the debt limit, so halting these investments creates some additional wiggle room. [debt limit](https://www.nytimes.com/article/debt-ceiling-us-economy.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-debt-ceiling&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc), is a cap on the total amount of money that the federal government is authorized to borrow via U.S. That includes seeking out ways to reduce what counts against the debt limit, such as suspending certain types of investments in savings plans for government workers and health plans for retired postal workers. This allows the Treasury Department to reinforce its cash reserves without having to issue new debt. As a result, the country sells Treasury debt to finance its operations — using borrowed money to fund military salaries, retiree benefits and interest payments to bondholders who own U.S. What is the debt ceiling? The United States runs a budget deficit, which means it does not take in enough money through taxes and other revenue to fund its operations.

As the European economy transitions towards net zero, fundraising for ESG- and impact-focused private debt strategies has accelerated.

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UBS Group AG is recommending investors to buy European credit over US debt amid signs of distress in the US loan markets, cracks emerging in private credit ...

The Treasury Department is beginning the use of special measures to avoid a US payments default, after the federal debt limit was reached Thursday. The ...

Democrats and the White House are adamant they won't agree to drastic spending cuts to discretionary programs, which fund the vast majority of federal agencies, ...

That’s not going to happen,” Manchin said from the World Economic Forum winter meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Government months into the future,” Yellen Such programs include Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Treasury Department uses accounting maneuvers to avoid defaulting on the debt. “This is an easy one. “We’re not getting rid of anything, and you can’t scare the bejesus out of people saying we’re going to get rid of Social Security, we’re going to privatize.

WASHINGTON: The US government hit its US$31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday (Jan 19), amid a standoff between the Republican-controlled House of ...

"We are optimistic that Democrats will come to the table and negotiate in good faith," said Republican Representative Ben Cline, who leads a conservative task force on the budget and spending. Congress adopted a comprehensive debt ceiling, the statutory maximum of debt the government can issue, in 1939, intending to limit its growth. "The important thing to remember is that America must never default on its debt. "We're already barreling toward a recession. But we similarly should not blindly increase the debt ceiling," Representative Chip Roy, a leading conservative, told Reuters. "Congress must address this without conditions as they did three times under (Republican former president) Donald Trump.”

Bond yields remained tranquil Thursday despite a looming impasse in Congress over raising the debt ceiling so the government can keep paying its bills.

Yields on Treasuries were fairly calm on Thursday. government could default on its debt. The Clock Is Ticking on the Debt Ceiling.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki cautioned against making any change to the government's debt redemption rule as it helps the government maintain ...

In a sense, discipline is being kept with this rule." Register for free to Reuters and know the full story "This 60-year redemption rule is set from the standpoint of securing sources of funding for redemption of JGBs and levelling fiscal burdens of redemption.

A Points of Return guide to the US debt ceiling showdown — a crisis you'd rather not know about, but will probably need to.

And the cost could be astronomical. But we can’t be certain. The US debt ceiling provides a perfect example; political brinkmanship has never led to an all-out default before, and it’s fair to assume it won’t in future.

The very phrase “debt ceiling” sounds austere and restrictive, as if it's a lid on government spending. In fact, this cap on United States government borrowing ...

Longer term, however, the blow to confidence in the US could undermine the currency’s dominant position in the global financial system. The combination of higher borrowing costs with higher inflation can put more strain on households and businesses.” Could it increase the risk of recession? Still, the volatility could be a problem. A second debt-ceiling face-off between Obama and Republicans occurred in 2013 as part of a doomed GOP effort to undo the Affordable Care Act. The very phrase “debt ceiling” sounds austere and restrictive, as if it’s a lid on government spending. The dollar may very well strengthen in the wake of the stand-off and even in the face of a default. The limit was routinely raised without incident until 1953. That would have cascading effects. “Financial markets would lose faith in the United States, the dollar would weaken and stocks would fall,” the Council of Economic Advisers, part of the White House, wrote during a debt ceiling debate in 2021. Failure to pay holders of US government bonds would make them less desirable as investments, forcing the government to pay more in interest to sell them. Raising the debt ceiling was among the disputes that caused two shutdowns of the federal government in late 1995 and early 1996.

The slump in the world's biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, threatening to unleash waves of credit turmoil ...

Almost $175 billion of real estate credit is already distressed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg — about four times more than the next biggest industry. The slump in the world’s biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, threatening to unleash waves of credit turmoil across the economy. As the toll from higher interest rates and the end of easy money mounts, many real estate markets are almost frozen with some lenders telling borrowers to sell assets or risk foreclosure amid demands for additional capital from landlords.

The Treasury Department has started employing “extraordinary measures,” but the path to raising the debt ceiling is likely to be a long one.

[the House voted to reopen the federal Export-Import Bank](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/us/politics/house-votes-overwhelmingly-to-reopen-the-ex-im-bank.html), and the Republicans who joined Democrats to back the measure had the implicit support of the departing speaker, John A. Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California has called on the Biden administration and congressional Democrats to negotiate spending cuts in order to win Republican support in the House for raising the debt limit. Lawmakers must then collect 218 public signatures on the petition — meaning that at least a handful of Republicans will have to join every Democrat in publicly going against their party leaders. [debt limit](https://www.nytimes.com/article/debt-ceiling-us-economy.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-debt-ceiling&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc), is a cap on the total amount of money that the federal government is authorized to borrow via U.S. The process is arduous and politically fraught, given that it undercuts the authority of the House speaker and procedural control of the floor. That formal notice essentially requires the speaker to then schedule a vote within two legislative days. But the threat of momentum behind a petition has often proved to be enough to pressure party leaders to hold votes on legislation they otherwise would not consider. She will also outline additional actions the Treasury can take to stay under the $31.4 trillion debt cap. Ultimately, it will be up to Congress to decide whether to let the country borrow more money or allow it to default on its debt by failing to pay investors who expect interest and other payments. What is the debt ceiling? The White House is expected to unveil its annual budget proposal in early March, outlining Mr. So far, House Republicans have vowed to oppose any increase in the debt limit without spending cuts.

The highest increase in consumer debt in over 18 years appears to have helped the UK's retail sector, as Britons borrow to buy products ranging from ...

[using buy-now-pay-later](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/buy-now-pay-later-demand-climbs-among-squeezed-uk-pensioners) and retailers reporting that many shoppers are turning to finance. Meanwhile, one British pawnbroker’s loans [have struck](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/pawnbroker-s-loans-at-record-high-amid-uk-cost-of-living-crisis) a record high.

The White House is refusing to negotiate with hardline Republicans on raising the debt ceiling because it believes enough of them will eventually back off ...

[Retail sales](/markets/us/us-retail-sales-drop-more-than-expected-december-2023-01-18/) fell the most in a year in December, suggesting [growth is ebbing](/markets/us/us-retail-sales-drop-more-than-expected-december-2023-01-18/) in the consumption-driven U.S. "We're doing better than any other major nation in the world today." The so-called "soft landing" is what the Federal Reserve is aiming for as well, though they have conceded that goal may be Democrats are planning to deploy that theme in the 2024 election even if an agreement is reached quickly on the debt ceiling. The game of chicken comes as the White House prepares Biden's expected re-election campaign. [elusive](/markets/us/feds-powell-soft-landing-chances-have-narrowed-2022-11-02/). But we similarly should not blindly increase the debt ceiling," Representative Chip Roy, a leading conservative, told Reuters. officials have repeatedly said they believe the economy's growth can slow to more sustainable levels, without putting people out of work. "Leading congressional Republicans have themselves admitted in the past that default would trigger an economic collapse, killing millions of jobs and decimating 401k plans," said White House spokesperson Andrew Bates told Reuters. We have the ability to manage servicing and paying our interest. The U.S. government might be forced to default on paying its debt.

(Bloomberg) -- The highest increase in consumer debt in over 18 years appears to have helped the UK's retail sector, as Britons borrow to buy products ...

“In a cost of living crisis clearly credit comes into its own,” Currys CEO Alex Baldock said on a call with reporters. “Credit cards are a great servant but a terrible master,” Forbes Advisor financial expert Laura Howard said in a note. “It is normal for credit to rise at this point in the economic cycle, but we don’t expect it to last,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw. However, a lot of Britons’ spending appears to be credit-fueled. Next Plc raised its profit forecast thanks to a rise in sales, while Marks & Spencer Group Plc’s clothing and home division reached its highest market share in seven years. While the overall volume of retail sales slid 1% in December, many stores enjoyed a stronger Christmas than had been expected and retailers’ shares rebounded in recent weeks after falling sharply for most of 2022.

Mortgage borrowing is slowing alongside the housing market, but credit card debt has now surpassed pre-pandemic levels as households grapple with rising ...

Mortgage debt experienced its sixth straight month of slower growth, the agency said, noting that the volume of existing home sales declined by 3.5% in November, and average selling prices declined for the eighth time in nine months. Mortgage debt was up 0.3% in the month, and non-mortgage debt grew by 0.2%. The national statistical agency reported that total household debt rose by 0.3% ($7.5 billion) in November to $2.8 trillion.

Hard-right Republicans say no to 'clean' debt ceiling increase, raising dire possibility of US defaulting on financial obligations.

The demands from House Republicans strike Democrats as particularly outrageous because of their own bipartisan approach to the debt ceiling in the past. Some House Republicans now appear to be hoping for similar spending cuts in exchange for a debt ceiling hike, escalating the risk of a default. “We are not going to be negotiating over the debt ceiling,” the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said on Tuesday. At the time, Republicans had just regained control of the House and found themselves going toe to toe with Barack Obama over the debt ceiling. As of now, it remains unclear how the latest debt ceiling standoff will resolve itself. Something’s going to give,” Gray said. “But fiscal problems would be continuing to do business as usual.” The US has never failed to raise or suspend its debt ceiling, so most Americans are probably unfamiliar with the potential consequences of a default. Yellen urged Congress to work as quickly as possible to raise the debt ceiling and prevent the US from defaulting on any of its financial obligations, which would have catastrophic consequences. “And what’s benchmarked to the treasury? For many economic experts, the looming crisis has sparked grim flashbacks to the 2011 standoff over the debt ceiling. Setting aside the fact that individual members of Congress do not sign bills, the comments from lawmakers like Greene have intensified concerns over a potential default this summer.

If the stand-off is not resolved in time, it risks a fiscal crisis that could send the US into a recession. Read more at straitstimes.com.

“In the end, I think the important thing to remember is that America must never default on its debt. “We do recognise obviously that there is a tail risk that they won’t be able, for whatever reason, to come to some kind of agreement by the X date... Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service also expects the Congress to reach an agreement in time, although it warns of protracted negotiations. and it’s not clear to us... Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell told reporters on Thursday that he was not concerned about a financial crisis, as he was confident that Republicans would “end up in some kind of negotiation with the administration” over the conditions under which the debt limit could be raised. “It is unclear if this would be treated as a default though it could trigger a downgrade by the credit rating agencies,” he added.

Debt ceiling drama, inflation and stock market swings. Here are tips for finding a financial planner to help navigate tough times.

If you have money sitting around earning a little more than 1 percent, if that much, [I bonds are an attractive deal](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/01/i-bond-new-rate-689-percent/?itid=lb_bom--the-best-of-michelle-singletary-on-personal-finance_8). [napfa.org](http://www.napfa.org/)) can put you in touch with a fee-only planner. In many respects, you won’t know how good the advice is until you implement a recommended plan. Other credentials to look for: chartered financial consultant (ChFC) or certified public accountant (CPA) with a specialty designation as a personal financial specialist (PFS). [extraordinary measures](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/19/debt-ceiling-default/?itid=lk_inline_manual_5)” to keep the government from breaching its $31.4 trillion debt limit, a scenario that could lead to default and unleash fiscal calamity. Instead, the law says they only need to ensure their advice is “suitable” for the client. The Financial Planning Association is the membership organization for certified financial planner (CFP) professionals. The North American Securities Administrators Association can help locate your state regulator ( Don’t be shy about asking how the planner will be compensated. Before you dine at a new restaurant, you might go online to look at reviews, right? Planners with certain designations must meet specific educational and employment requirements and agree to abide by a code of ethics. A planner who works well with a friend or a relative still might not be right for you.

Accusations of bribery, an imprisoned Cuban bank official and Interpol all feature in a high-stakes case against the Cuban government set to start Monday in ...

Iraqi debt traded between 8 and 10 cents on the dollar for a decade, and then settled for roughly 32 cents on the dollar after the U.S. In 2018, CRF says in filings, the fund offered the Cuban government a better deal than the one the country struck in 2015 with bilateral creditors for billions in unpaid debts. There are investors who specialize in buying them at discounts to the loan's face value and then in negotiating with the government in question to finally settle them. One example is a GDP warrant, which pays out based on the growth level of country's GDP over an extended period. CRF, meanwhile, says in court filings that it first reached out to Cuba 10 years ago to settle the debt but were ignored. and Cuban administrations "to negotiate a settlement for the 5,913 claims valued at $1.9 billion." In more recent filings, the Cuban government appears to have backed away from the bribery accusation. David Charters, the chairman of CRF, pushed back: "Characterizing us as a vulture fund is a gross misrepresentation of us." In the U.K., the loser pays the winner's legal fees, so one of the parties will be out nearly $6 million. If Cuba loses, it could ultimately cost the island nation billions in long overdue payments — and, in a worst-case scenario, lead to the seizure of government-owned assets such as oil tankers and in-bound wire transfers. This is the first time Cuba is facing legal action for what is estimated to be about $7 billion in outstanding commercial loans from the 1970s and 1980s. Investment fund CRF1, originally called the Cuba Recovery Fund, is suing Cuba for roughly $72 million in principal and past due interest on two loans it now owns.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday warned of the widespread global effects that could be felt if the federal government exhausts extraordinary ...

Also, it will suspend the reinvestment of a government securities fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan. “It would certainly undermine the role of the dollar as a reserve currency that is used in transactions all over the world. “On top of that, a failure to make payments that are due, whether it’s the bondholders or to Social Security recipients or to our military, would undoubtedly cause a recession in the US economy and could cause a global financial crisis.” The effects of the federal government failing to make payments, she argued, could be as broad as a “global financial crisis.” And so far, Yellen’s warnings have failed to spark bipartisan discussion, with both Republicans and Democrats reaffirming their rigid positions over the past week. [Yellen said that after the measures are exhausted,](https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/analysis-debt-ceiling-showdown-risks/index.html) the US could experience at a minimum downgrading of its debt as a result of Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling.

When the Treasury Department spends the maximum amount authorized under the ceiling, Congress must decide to suspend or raise the limit on borrowing. Economists ...

[looks at the role of the U.S. debt ceiling bring down other markets?](#chapter-title-0-5) [Does the government have any options if the ceiling is not raised?](#chapter-title-0-6) [Do other countries have similar policies?](#chapter-title-0-7) [Should the debt ceiling be revoked?](#chapter-title-0-8) [Recommended Resources](#chapter-title-0-9) Treasury Secretary Yellen falls into that camp, having argued that the debt ceiling is inherently harmful to the U.S. When the debt ceiling was set to expire in 2013, debate over the limit forced the government into a shutdown, and in 2021, the issue again came [down to the wire](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/16/biden-signs-debt-ceiling-increase-preventing-first-ever-us-default.html). The creditworthiness of U.S. Any hit to confidence in the U.S. [CFR’s Roger Ferguson to consider](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whats-stake-debt-ceiling-showdown) the once unthinkable prospect of a U.S. Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that a breach of the debt ceiling Since 1960, [Congress has increased](https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limit) the ceiling seventy-eight times, most recently in 2021. Created by Congress in 1917, the debt limit, or ceiling, sets the maximum amount of outstanding federal debt the U.S. Any change to the debt ceiling requires majority approval by both chambers of Congress. Efforts to raise or abolish the ceiling have become a topic of heated debate among policymakers; some lawmakers who decry government debt have used negotiations on altering the limit to try to force spending cuts.

As total debt surpasses $31.4 trillion — the current statutory limit — the Treasury is undertaking a series of bookkeeping maneuvers to disguise new borrowing ...

When this pantomime was last played through almost to the end, in 2011, default was indeed avoided — but financial markets were destabilized, the country’s credit rating was cut, and taxpayers faced nearly If Congress doesn’t vote to increase the limit, new borrowing could be halted and outright debt default is possible. As total debt surpasses $31.4 trillion — the current statutory limit — the Treasury is undertaking a series of bookkeeping maneuvers to disguise new borrowing and keep the government operating.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the department doesn't prioritize some bills over others, and that any non-payment of obligations is a default that ...

Junk-rated companies in Europe have raised $1.4 billion from bond sales this month as investors return to riskier debt after rising interest rates and ...

Its private equity owner EQT is putting new capital in the business to strengthen it and get investors more comfortable with the deal. Analysts say that such firms could struggle with selling new debt and might require shareholder support to entice investors. Register for free to Reuters and know the full story [(TLIT.MI)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/TLIT.MI) started selling at least $500 million in bonds to refinance short-term debt, while Altice France [kicked off](/business/media-telecom/altice-kicks-off-process-extend-maturing-loans-increase-pricing-memo-2023-01-19/) a process to extend a total of just over $6 billion and roughly 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) worth of loans to August 2028. Firms are either selling new debt or asking investors to extend the maturity of existing debt, offering in return an increase in the interest they pay. According to Refinitiv data, those sales so far in January add to almost $2.2 billion worth of sales in December and $760 million in November.

David Andolfatto, a senior economist in the Miami Herbert Business School, assessed the current debt limit standoff and the consequences if Congress does ...

The situation today is a little more dire than before because the U.S. A ceiling would prevent the debt from growing, forcing the government to cut services and payments to U.S. The debt ceiling was initially put in place by Congress during World War I as a way to allow the Treasury to borrow money without Congressional approval, as long as the total debt outstanding fell below the ceiling. debt—considered the bedrock of the global financial system because of its stability—could threaten the global financial system. David Andolfatto, professor and chair of the University of Miami Patti and Allan Herbert Business School’s Department of Economics, discussed the importance of the debt ceiling—the amount that the government can borrow to cover its debts. He was previously employed as the senior vice president and special advisor to the governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

President Joe Biden said Friday that he would speak with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy about the debt ceiling, warning that failing to raise the nation's ...

“These are the kind of debates that we’re going to have.” The White House has hammered Republicans repeatedly over their suggestions that the government cut funding for Medicare and Social Security as part of a debt ceiling deal. “We’re going to have a little discussion on that,” he said at a White House event with city mayors. McCarthy earlier this week urged Biden and Democratic congressional leaders to begin discussions on a potential deal. Failing to do so for the first time ever, Democrats and a wide swathe of economists have cautioned, would destroy the nation’s financial credibility, tank the stock market and throw the global economy into chaos. had reached its debt limit](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/19/treasury-activates-extraordinary-measures-to-avoid-default-00078527) and would need to use special measures to avoid a default.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday warned that the U.S. government cannot choose to pay some bills over others if Congress fails to raise the ...

mayors that "we're going to have a discussion" with Republican House of Representatives Speaker McCarthy about raising the U.S. government hit](https://reut.rs/3HhFUNI) its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday, a figure that reflects money already spent by the government. "It could cause a global financial crisis. Yellen [has informed](https://reut.rs/3wgIxc3) congressional leaders that her department had begun using extraordinary cash management measures to stave off default until early June. DAKAR/WASHINGTON Jan 20 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday warned that the U.S. She said the Treasury Department cannot prioritize its payments, as some Republicans have suggested.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and President Joe Biden at a White House meeting on Nov. 29, 2022. Photo: ...

Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), "I think that we’re going to trust [McCarthy] at his word." - "We will get the cuts. "That’s where we’ve got to hold tight." - "We expect the agreement to be performed. - "We are going to have a clear debate on two different visions for the country ... We had to have that," Norman said. We’re not going to default. I think he's going to perform," said Rep. debt — or forcing a vote on ousting McCarthy if he falls short or cuts a deal with Democrats. strengthen retirement programs, invest in key priorities, and fund it all by making the wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share." Congress has always done it, and the President expects them to do their duty once again.” I look forward to our meeting.”

Yellen rejects GOP gambit on debt ceiling · The draft GOP proposal, reported by The Washington Post, would buy time on the debt limit. · But the debt ...

[Yellen slams Russia and China in Africa speech](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/20/yellen-africa-speech-russia-china) [debt ceiling](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/17/debt-ceiling-yellen-congress), the Treasury Department announced on Thursday, with [no obvious deal in sight.](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/19/debt-ceiling-fight-biden-congress-republicans) [any failure](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/19/congress-debt-ceiling-extraordinary-measures) to pay a government bill would constitute a debt default, insisting that her department doesn’t have the “systems” to prioritize debt payments. [has been savaged](https://twitter.com/WHCOS/status/1614291974307348482?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1614291974307348482%7Ctwgr%5E97ed8c34c3c766d5714ec206c3a1cc1bf6699533%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FWHCOS2Fstatus2F1614291974307348482widget%3DTweet)by White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain. [Janet Yellen](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/11/janet-yellen-biden-treasury-secretary) is ruling out a [potential proposal](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/01/13/debt-ceiling-gop-plan/) from House Republicans that calls for triaging payments after the exhaustion of "extraordinary measures" to avoid default on the federal debt. [Politics & Policy](https://www.axios.com/politics-policy)

Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart says political feuds come and go, but inflation, weak growth, geopolitical tensions pose real global recession threat.

Russia-Ukraine divided the world into three — those that were supporting Ukraine, those that were supporting Russia, and those that kind of stood on the sidelines. Not only because a lot of European banks have exposure to Turkish firms, but also Turkey is the stopgap of the immigration flowing into much of Europe, and so if they were to say, “We can’t deal with this. This is not my baseline prediction, but if Turkey were to have a crisis, the impact on Europe would be quite significant. Where the risk of recession among the advanced economies is the most visible is in Europe. The emerging markets are not in good shape, and a lot of the World Bank downward revision is connected to emerging markets. The poorest countries, the 73 or 74 countries eligible for the World Bank’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative, more than 60 percent are either in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress, according to the IMF and World Bank. They’re off to the races on inflation and have a very anti-West government. REINHART: The prices of services and wages are stronger. But there are challenges that remain — the labor market is still pretty strong, which the Fed has flagged, and sticky price inflation is still going strong, so I think it’s premature to start anticipating — the way financial markets are prone to do — that the Fed is going to be in a position to cut rates very soon. Inflation was only 3 percent, so the amount of tightening required was not comparable to today. In the E.U., inflation is also trending downward the last three months, hitting 9.2 percent in December from 10.1 percent in November, and 10.6 percent in October. Goods price inflation really spiked with the commodity price increases, with the oil price increases.