Fed rate hike

2022 - 12 - 15

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

Fed raises rates by half a percentage point in last 2022 hike (The Washington Post)

The central bank signaled it would keep raising interest rates next year, though it's slowing the pace of its increases.

](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/13/cpi-november-inflation-fed/?itid=lk_inline_manual_33)But Wall Street is still jittery, since the Fed has made clear that taming the worst inflation in decades will involve pain for businesses and households. For most of 2022, they were trying to move quickly, and in big swings, to get interest rates into “restrictive territory” that would slow the economy. “And that calls for a lot of risk management.” Growth is expected to eke out at 0.5 percent next year, and the labor market is expected to soften, with the central bank forecasting the unemployment rate to reach 4.6 percent at the end of 2023. Powell said that estimates for future rates are “our best assessment today of what we think the peak rate will be,” but he acknowledged how consistently those projections have been scrapped and rewritten. The Fed’s most powerful tool rests in interest rates, but the central bank relies on the financial system to amplify its moves, keep financial conditions tight and price in additional hikes. The Fed has now hoisted rates seven times this year and signaled a few more hikes early next year. Those estimates show officials expect to add three-quarters of a percentage point onto their base policy rate, though neither the projections nor Powell said whether that would take place over three more meetings (with hikes of 0.25 percentage points each) or two (with hikes of 0.50 and 0.25 percentage points). “But it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path.” But Powell made clear that “historical experience cautions against prematurely loosening policy.” Successfully controlling the current bout of inflation also means keeping it from reemerging in the future. Despite the risk, the Fed is on track to hike rates past 5 percent next year, according to projections released at the end of the central bank’s two-day policy meeting. “And if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not — it’s just not knowable.”

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Image courtesy of "BBC News"

Fed hikes rates again and warns of more rises (BBC News)

Forecasts from the Federal Reserve showed the bank's key interest rate could stand above 5% a year from now. But policymakers are starting to move more ...

"I wish there were a completely painless way to restore price stability," he said. "In comparison to last year, there's definitely more resistance." This is the best we can do." This year, he doubled his supplies for the holiday season, but shoppers are shifting to less expensive options, like t-shirts. The European Central Bank is poised for a similar move. Mr Powell said the bank was encouraged by signs that inflation was improving, but that it would take "substantially more evidence" to be confident that it was on a sustained downward path.

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Image courtesy of "ETF Trends"

Consider KMLM While the Fed Continues Rate Hike Cycle (ETF Trends)

Despite the Fed's slowing interest rate hike, markets responded negatively to the revised outlook from the Fed for 2023.

KMLM’s benchmark is the KFA MLM Index, and the fund invests in commodity currency and global fixed income futures contracts. Beyond just higher end rates for fed funds rates, uncertainty remains for 2023 regarding how long the Fed will have to hold rates at their peaks next year to bring inflation closer in line with their desired 2% end goal. Investing in managed futures offers diversification for portfolios and carrying them within a portfolio can potentially help mitigate losses during market volatility and sinking prices. Economic data that the Fed considers when hiking rates continues to offer up conflicting stories: on one hand broad inflation has slowed from its rapid gains earlier in the year, gaining 0.1% month-over-month in November to 7.1% year-over-year, and core inflation has slowed as well. Fed officials are now expecting inflation to come down slower in 2023 than their September estimates in contrast to market expectations that have seen bond yields in the last month fall, potentially in hopes of a rapid decline in inflation. 2022 was a year of extended market volatility, driven largely by the uncertainty around inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Asia-Pacific markets trade lower after Fed's rate hike, signals more ... (CNBC)

Asia-Pacific markets traded lower after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points to the highest level in 15 years.

The decision also occurs a day after November's consumer price index reading was up just 0.1%, an indication that inflation may have peaked. Prices for imports grew 14.2% compared with a year ago after seeing growth of 19.8% the previous month. A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. "We would need more weak inflation data in order for the Fed to tone down its hawkishness." "Given the U.S. Monetary policy tightening by central banks around the world and the prolonged war in Ukraine are also factors contributing to slower growth, the bank said. And of course, there's both downside and upside risks for the China case because as they reopen, we know cases are going to have to spread pretty quickly," Park said. That's lower than expectations for growth of 3.6% in a Reuters survey. "For the U.S., we import so much from China, if those supply chains get normalized, that would bring down inflation, so I applaud China's move," he said. The [Nikkei 225](/quotes/.N225/) in Japan traded 0.37% lower to 28,051.7 and the Topix fell 0.18% to 1,973.9 as investors digest trade data from Japan and South Korea. — Jihye Lee China's annual Central Economic Work Conference will [reportedly](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/tough-times-warnings-sound-over-chinas-rapid-zero-covid-exit-2022-12-14/) be held behind doors for two days until Friday.

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Image courtesy of "NextAdvisor"

The Fed Just Hiked Rates Again. Why This Time Is Different and ... (NextAdvisor)

The Federal Reserve just raised rates. Here's what it could mean for inflation and interest rates in the new year.

That [doesn’t mean rates will go down](https://time.com/nextadvisor/banking/savings/savings-account-rate-predictions-2023/), though. [savers can benefit](https://time.com/nextadvisor/banking/savings/highest-savings-interest-rates-12-12-22/) from boosted earnings on their balances. [experts we’ve spoken to](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/november-2022-inflation-federal-reserve/) say there’s a chance the Fed will slow, or even stop its rate hikes in the new year. The money can come in handy if you suffer from a job loss or unexpected costs. Most credit cards, on the other hand, have variable interest — meaning the already very high APR on any balances will only grow as rates rise. But without knowing what’s going on and what we can control, the Fed news can be quite scary, says [Kelly Luethje](https://www.willowplanninggroup.com/about/), CFP and founder of Willow Planning Group, a financial planning firm. Before taking on a new loan or mortgage, make sure you understand exactly what you’ll owe: the payment schedule, potential fees, and interest rate. Fortunately, there are steps you can take to prepare your wallet for the economic uncertainty ahead: But he predicts that the Fed will see less aggressive interest rate increases in the new year if inflation continues to come down. The latest [Consumer Price Index](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) showed a more positive than expected year-over-year increase, moving the inflation rate down from 7.7% to 7.1%. we think the appropriate thing to do now is to move to a slower pace,” Powell said. But the next few months may be more difficult to predict.

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Image courtesy of "WOKV"

How the Fed's rate hikes could affect your finances (WOKV)

That said, Hoyt noted that household debt payments, as a proportion of income, remain relatively low, though they have risen lately. So even as borrowing rates ...

The independent foundation is separate from Charles Schwab and Co. The Associated Press receives support from Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and explanatory reporting to improve financial literacy. That said, payments on federal student loans are suspended with zero interest until summer 2023 as part of an emergency measure put in place early in the pandemic. The current range for federal loans is between about 5% and 7.5%. That’s enough to chase many out of the auto market. But longer-term loans of more than four payments that these companies offer are subject to the same increased borrowing rates as credit cards. Total credit card balances have topped $900 billion, according to the Fed, a record high, though that amount isn’t adjusted for inflation. Mortgage rates don’t always move in tandem with the Fed's benchmark rate. If, on the other hand, you have money to save, you'll earn a bit more interest on it. That’s because those rates are based in part on banks’ prime rate, which follows the Fed’s. “It also affects consumers who have a lot of credit card debt — that will hit right away.” Wednesday's rate hike, part of the Fed's drive to curb high inflation, was smaller than its previous four straight three-quarter-point increases.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

Here's What Wall Street Is Saying About the Fed's Rate Hike (Bloomberg)

For investors trying to gauge levels of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday was an example of words carrying more weight than actions.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years (CNBC)

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 15 years, indicating the fight against inflation is not over yet.

Prior to this year, the Fed had not raised rates more than a quarter point at a time in 22 years. [consumer price index rose just 0.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/cpi-inflation-november-2022-.html) in November, a smaller increase than expected as the 12-month rate dropped to 7.1%. [Retail sales grew 1.3% in October](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/16/retail-sales-increase-1-point-3-percent-in-october-slightly-above-estimates.html) and were up 8.3% on an annual basis, indicating that consumers so far are weathering the inflation storm. That is followed by another percentage point of cuts in 2025 to a rate of 3.1%, before the benchmark settles into a longer-run neutral level of 2.5%. A level the Fed puts more weight on, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, fell to a 5% annual rate in October. "There's an expectation really that the services inflation will not move down so quickly, so we'll have to stay at it," he said. Members penciled in increases for the funds rate until it hits a median level of 5.1% next year, equivalent to a target range of 5%-5.25. Members slightly lowered their unemployment rate outlook for this year and bumped it a bit higher for the ensuing years. The newest dot plot featured multiple members seeing rates heading considerably higher than the median point for 2023 and 2024. The FOMC lowered its growth targets for 2023, putting expected GDP gains at just 0.5%, barely above what would be considered a recession. "But it will take substantially more evidence to have confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward" path. The

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