CPI

Stocks have trembled while major currencies held steady as investors were reluctant to place bets ahead of the...

As measured by the gap between two- and 10-year yields, the US curve is deeply inverted at below minus 40 bps. Oil prices fell after industry data showed US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, signalling a possible hiccup in demand. The dollar was steady, having paused from a retreat that began in the middle of July. The dollar index, which measures the safe-haven greenback against six major peers, was at 106.3. Europe's benchmark STOXX index fell 0.43 per cent, following a bigger fall of 1.2 per cent in the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, while Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.65 per cent. The market is pricing in a 69.5 per cent chance of a 75 bps rate increase at the Fed's next meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect the CPI to show year-on-year headline inflation of 8.7 per cent, far above the Fed's target of two per cent but down from last month's red-hot 9.1 per cent.

Investors are awaiting the July consumer price index report due Wednesday, which will give the Federal Reserve further data on inflation.

The billionaire investor is currently embroiled in a legal battle with Twitter, which he had agreed to buy for about $44 billion. "I still think the Federal Reserve is on for 75 basis points….They need to see much more improvement than this sustained, especially in the core. "The curve has flattened to negative-50 basis points between 2s and 10s. When the 2-year Treasury yield trades above the 10-year yield, many on Wall Street see that as strong recession indicator. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 6 basis points to 2.96%. It is sometimes called Wall Street's "fear gauge," and tends to spike when investors are more uncertain about the future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 500 points following a better-than-expected inflation report which lifted stocks, especially in technology and banks. With about an hour left in Wednesday's trading session, the Dow is holding onto a rally of more than 400 points. "It looks like the odds of another 75 basis point hike by the Fed have dipped significantly in the wake of this report and we could only see a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting. Shares of Disney surged more than 5% after hours when the company reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines, with strong spending at theme parks. ... If we continue to see declining inflation prints, the Federal Reserve may start to slow the pace of monetary tightening," said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. Since 1990, that would be the 10th longest such streak, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Inflation backed off a 40-year high last month as gas prices fell but food and rent costs rose again, CPI report shows.

In July, breakfast-cereal prices rose 2% from the previous month and 16.4% from a year ago. And hotel rates were down 2.7% after a 2.8% drop the previous month. She notes the Fed will have to weigh the latest inflation data against a report last week that showed the economy added a booming 528,000 jobs, as annual wage growth ticked up to 5.2%, further stoking price pressures. Barclays now expects overall inflation to end the year at 5.8%, below its previous 6.1% estimate. Rent edged up 0.4% monthly, and 6.3% over the past year as landlords offset a surge in housing sale prices. With the pandemic becoming a less-virulent public-health threat, Jim Gomes of Palm Desert, California, and his wife, Jennifer, have been dining out about six times a month since spring. Grocery prices, though, rose by 1.3% from June and are up 13.1% over the past 12 months. And new-vehicle costs advanced 0.6%, and 10.4% annually. Medical-care services increased 0.4% and 5.1% yearly. And eggs shot up 4.3% , and 38% from a year ago. Unleaded regular averaged $4.03 Tuesday, down from $4.70 a month ago. That held the annual increase at 5.9% after three straight monthly declines.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday ahead of crucial consumer price inflation data, while investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its forecasts for the precious ...

The bank expects silver to reach $21, $23 and $25 an ounce, respectively, from a prior $30 an ounce across that multimonth time frame. “Gold’s path higher is still there, but it might take a little while longer if equities remain bid for a while.” Gold was boosted Wednesday by a weaker dollar, with ICE Dollar Index DXY, +0.17%falling about 1.3%, while U.S. stock benchmarks surged. “This dynamic once again proves how strongly the bears are defending that level. “While we expected nominal rates to increase on the back of Fed hikes, we did not expect inflation expectations to fall so much after the failure of the transitory narrative and high persistent inflation surprises,” said Goldman strategists led by Mikhail Sprogis, in a note late Tuesday. “The main conclusion is that in the current environment of tightening policy and persistent recession concerns, the tactical direction of gold will be determined by shifts in Fed priority function between inflation fight and growth support,” said the strategists. “It is not a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be much less aggressive with hiking interest rates, but stock traders may remain a bit aggressive here,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note to clients. Gold for December, the most-active contract, touched an intraday low of $1,803, but also touched a $1,824.60 intraday high, according to FactSet. “Gold showed an interesting reaction to the US CPI report,” FxPro’s senior market analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, said in emailed comments to MarketWatch, noting that after an initial upward momentum, “easily explained by a falling dollar and a surge in demand for risky assets,” gold flirted with falling below $1,800. Gold prices clung to a gain on Wednesday after U.S. consumer price inflation data slowed to an 8.5% yearly rate in July from 9.1% a month ago, potentially giving some breathing to the Federal Reserve around the size of its next interest rate hike. -0.24%expiring in December rose $1.40, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,813.70 an ounce, following a gain of $7.10 to $1,812.30 on Tuesday, the highest level for the most-active contract since June 29, according to FactSet data. While a sharp 7.7% decrease in gasoline prices helped decelerate headline CPI, “inflation pressures remain strong especially in the core services sector,” wrote Oxford Economics’ Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist, while pointing to residential rent prices that still remain high.

It is definitely inflation day today. China, Germany and Italy have released their consumer inflation data, while the US will release theirs before th.

Fed rate futures continue to lay down a 68% chance of a 75-point hike in September. A sharp change in this sentiment in the debt markets could set all other related sectors in motion. Historically, inflation data has rarely deviated from expectations without triggering a market reaction, but in recent months the release of data from the USA has the potential to set trends. Prices are assumed to have risen by 0.2% last month, which is the historical norm, and the year-over-year rate has slowed from 9.1% to 8.7%. In the previous 11 months, US data has methodically exceeded expectations, pulling the Fed's increasingly hawkish approach. Trade Responsibly. CFDs and Spread Betting are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. China is showing the world that this year's inflation problem is not theirs. We must be prepared that the investors will scrutinise how fact correlates with expectations.

Commodities Analysis by Barani Krishnan/Investing.com covering: S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, SPDR® S&P 500, US Dollar Index Futures.

“If the CPI inflation numbers come in above consensus, gold will likely drop to $1,775 and $1,765. This could explain why gold prices have risen in the last two days prior to the CPI report. The next targets will be $1,828 and $1,842.” He does not hold positions in the commodities and securities he writes about. What all these simply mean is that the central bank will have ample time to decide on its next rate hike. Buyers and sellers are sitting on fence line at $1,798 to $1,802.” In fact, the game may have arguably changed for gold longs. The next nonfarm payroll report, for August, will be on September 2—some 19 days before the rate decision. There will also be another CPI report, for August, due on September 13. Gold, they’ll add, has never really diverged from its relationship with inflation; their argument is that only those who don’t understand it will utter the contrary. Since hitting record highs of about $2,100 in August 2020, gold has often disappointed its backers more than it has delighted them. Also, unlike previous months, the Fed will have this time two back-to-back US monthly employment reports to peruse before its next rate decision.

US inflation decelerated in July by more than expected, reflecting lower energy prices, which may take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue ...

A decline in gasoline offset increases in food and shelter costs.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting headline CPI to increase 8.7% on an annual basis and 0.2% monthly. Year-over-year change in the consumer price ...

The energy index rose 32.9% from a year ago. Recent commentary from policymakers has pointed toward a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike at the September meeting. But gasoline was still up 44% from a year ago and fuel oil increased 75.6% on an annual basis, despite an 11% decline in July. While inflation has been accelerating, gross domestic product declined for the first two quarters of 2022. The central bank has hiked benchmark borrowing rates by 2.25 percentage points so far in 2022, and officials have provided strong indications that more increases are coming. "They've been saying they're ready to deliver a 75 basis point hike if they have to. I don't think they have to anymore." Butter is up 26.4% over the past year, eggs have surged 38% and coffee is up more than 20%. The report was good news for workers, who saw a 0.5% monthly increase in real wages. Despite the monthly drop in the energy index, electricity prices rose 1.6% and were up 15.2% from a year ago. - The report was good news for workers, who saw a 0.5% monthly increase in real wages. Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices.

U.S. inflation eased slightly but remained close to a four-decade high in July despite cooling energy prices. The Labor Department on Wednesday reported ...

The core-price index climbed 0.3% last month, down sharply from June’s 0.7% gain, but slightly higher than the average monthly gain of 0.2% in the two years before the pandemic.\n\nRead the full article. The CPI measures what consumers pay for goods and services.\n\nCore CPI, which excludes often volatile energy and food prices, held steady in July, increasing 5.9% from the same month a year ago, a sign that broad price pressures remain in the economy.\n\nOn a monthly basis, the CPI was flat in July after rising 1.3% the prior month, the result of falling energy prices such as gasoline.

The US consumer price index rose by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in July, a slower annual increase compared to June, as inflationary pressures eased on the ...

Stock futures soared with Treasuries after investors finally got a report that brought signs of a peak in runaway inflation.

Vince Cignarella, Global Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, discusses the July CPI report. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, discusses CPI and the ...

Rob Barnett, Senior Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses energy prices, CPI, and the Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on energy. Vince Cignarella, Global Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, discusses the July CPI report. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, discusses CPI and the economy.

U.S. consumer prices decelerated in July as gasoline prices dropped sharply, raising hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve may dial back its aggressive path of ...

The big surprise to us was the energy pulldown. “The consumer is getting some relief. “It’s good news for the stock market. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com The details show some pretty big declines in components like air fares, hotels, energy. “This is an indication that we’re going in the right direction. Does this raise the possibility of the Fed changing its tune? A peculiar one, but a recession. “Hopefully the tide is finally turning on inflation. But we still see sticky points. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

The consumer-price index is arguably the most closely watched inflation indicator in the U.S. It measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and ...

Stocks have trembled while major currencies held steady as investors were reluctant to place bets ahead of the...

As measured by the gap between two- and 10-year yields, the US curve is deeply inverted at below minus 40 bps. Oil prices fell after industry data showed US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, signalling a possible hiccup in demand. The dollar was steady, having paused from a retreat that began in the middle of July. The dollar index, which measures the safe-haven greenback against six major peers, was at 106.3. Europe's benchmark STOXX index fell 0.43 per cent, following a bigger fall of 1.2 per cent in the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, while Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.65 per cent. The market is pricing in a 69.5 per cent chance of a 75 bps rate increase at the Fed's next meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect the CPI to show year-on-year headline inflation of 8.7 per cent, far above the Fed's target of two per cent but down from last month's red-hot 9.1 per cent.

Full coverage of the July CPI report and the markets.

After months of worrying inflation data, today's CPI report offered some good news. However, it may not be enough for the Fed to alter likely plans to raise ...

That may give the Fed comfort that recessionary fears may be overstated as they try to tame inflation and keep the job market strong. It seems likely that have passed peak inflation in the U.S. at this point. Today’s inflation data was encouraging as energy prices are starting to ease. The Fed is scheduled to set interest rates again next month on September 21. Also, food prices really matter to the economy. On that basis without energy costs included, prices rose 0.4% for the month or a 4.9% annualized rate.

U.S. consumer prices decelerated in July as gasoline prices dropped sharply, raising hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve may dial back its aggressive path of ...

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The cooler-than-expected US inflation reading for July is a positive sign that has buoyed risk assets, but some investors may be getting a little ahead of ...

Consumer prices in Moldova increased by 1.4% in July, the slowest rate in the past year, but the annual inflation rate edged up to 33.6% y/y from ...

Compared to its previous scenario, the BNM revised upwards the inflation forecast for the coming three quarters (until Q1 2023) and downwards after that. Food prices increased by 36.4% y/y as of July, the prices of non-food goods by 24.1% y/y and the prices of services (which include natural gas and electricity) by 43.5% y/y. Consumer prices in Moldova increased by 1.4% in July, the slowest rate in the past year, but the annual inflation rate edged up to 33.6% y/y from 31.8% y/y in June, the statistics bureau announced.

Consumer prices in Moldova increased by 1.4% in July, the slowest rate in the past year, but the annual inflation rate edged up to 33.6% y/y from ...

Compared to its previous scenario, the BNM revised upwards the inflation forecast for the coming three quarters (until Q1 2023) and downwards after that. Food prices increased by 36.4% y/y as of July, the prices of non-food goods by 24.1% y/y and the prices of services (which include natural gas and electricity) by 43.5% y/y. Consumer prices in Moldova increased by 1.4% in July, the slowest rate in the past year, but the annual inflation rate edged up to 33.6% y/y from 31.8% y/y in June, the statistics bureau announced.

In the 12 months through July, the CPI increased by a weaker-than-expected 8.5% following a 9.1% rise in June. Underlying inflation pressures, which exclude ...

An extremely tight labor market is driving up wages, which in turn contribute to higher prices for services. An alternate measure of consumer prices compiled by the Cleveland Fed was less encouraging. But its a start and we expect to see broader signs of easing price pressures over the next few months," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Investors immediately pared bets the Fed would deliver a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike at its Sept. 20-21 meeting, instead seeing the U.S. central bank likely to opt for a half-percentage-point hike. But the lower-than-expected CPI data ignited a strong rally in equity markets, with the S&P 500 index (.SPX) up about 2% in early afternoon trading. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com There was little relief on that front, with prices for services excluding energy-related items rising at a 5.5% annual rate in July, the same pace as in the prior month, although there was a decline in the monthly reading. The Median CPI, which is considered a good view of the breadth of price pressures in the economy, rose 6.3% on an annual basis in July, compared to 6% in June, the regional Fed bank reported separately on Wednesday. Inflation in the cost of rent and owners' equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would receive from renting a home, rose at almost the same pace as in June. Shelter costs comprise about 40% of the core CPI measure. The so-called core CPI rose 0.3% in July, a 10-month low, after climbing 0.7% in June, helped by an almost 8% fall in the cost of airline fares, but still increased 5.9% in the 12 months through July, matching the pace in June. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com