Pelosi

Military and diplomatic efforts limit Beijing to angry bluster. Nancy Pelosi reacts after signing the CHIPS For America Act during a bill enrollment ceremony ...

“I do think there will be some form of retaliation,” Fritz said. “PLA Air Force aircraft [could shadow] her flight into or out of Taiwan…but there wouldn’t be any interaction,” Murrett said. That rhetoric reflects the Chinese government’s efforts to push back on long-established standards of U.S. engagement with the self-governing island. “Part of our responsibilities is to make sure that she can travel freely and securely and I can assure you that she will,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Monday, without elaborating. That tough-on-Taiwan policy is key to Xi’s credibility as he seeks an unprecedented third term as China’s leader this fall. Beijing has strongly protested Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and issued lurid warnings of a stern Chinese response. But the PLA is expected to flex some muscle in the Taiwan Strait — something that Chinese state media can trumpet as a symbol of Xi’s iron resolve — and which projects power over Taiwan without risking military confrontation. “The fairly aggressive statements we’ve had from China over the past few weeks are probably more for domestic than international [consumption] — the Chinese leadership cannot be seen as backing down in any shape or form,” said Ret. Vice Adm. Robert B. Murrett, professor of practice at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School. “President Xi can’t be seen as backing down from what could be viewed as a challenge by the speaker’s visit to Taiwan and at the same time, politically, the Congress and the [Biden] administration can’t be viewed as backing down, either.” U.S. congressional delegation visits to Taiwan are routine and U.S. law — the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act — authorizes “officials at all levels of the United States government … to meet their Taiwanese counterparts.” But the Chinese Communist Party considers “ reunification with Taiwan,” a territory that the CCP has never ruled, a “historical task.” And Chinese President Xi Jinping has ramped up pressure on the island with a relentless campaign of hostility since the 2016 election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party. “In advance of her arrival in Taiwan, the U.S. will relay detailed information about Speaker Pelosi’s flight plans to China’s military,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonprofit Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “U.S. officials will also message, publicly, and privately, the trip’s very limited goals and Washington’s continued adherence to its ‘One China’ policy … [and] work to shape and downplay the media coverage surrounding the trip.” “A visit to Taiwan by her would constitute a gross interference in China’s internal affairs ... and lead to a very serious situation and grave consequences,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Monday.