AAPL

2022 - 7 - 29

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Apple: I'd Rather Buy The SPY (Seeking Alpha)

Apple is a phenomenal company, but their enormous size will be a barrier to market-beating returns. Read more about AAPL stock here.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Share repurchases have been a foundation of Apple's annual EPS growth and I fully expect this to continue in the future. In the current macro environment of rising interest rates, sky-high inflation, and a looming recession, investing anywhere is risky. I assumed Apple will continue reducing total number of shares outstanding by 2.5% annually and grow FCF by 7.4% annually (below the 10 YR CAGR of 10.8%). Investors looking to 5x their money in the next 5 to 10 years likely won't be able to do so owning Apple. It's simply too large a snowball. Using the market multiple approach, I arrive at a 2026 target price of $197 for Apple, which includes share repurchases but excludes dividends. Apple has numerous products and services of which I am a satisfied customer. Prior to 2021, share repurchases often accounted for a significant portion of EPS growth. To put it in perspective, Apple is the size of 25 PayPal's ( PYPL). It takes an enormous amount of money to move Apple, whether that be revenue, earnings, or investors. There's no denying the incredible success of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) as a company and as an investment. Just as important a question, how far outside the park must Apple hit these homeruns to have a meaningful impact on revenue and earnings? But, as many of us know, the larger a snowball gets the harder it is to roll, to the point where it's so large it can't be rolled at all.

Apple (AAPL) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)

Good day, and welcome to the Apple Q3 FY 2022 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I ...

What matters to us, I think it goes back to Tim was saying earlier, is we want to make sure that people love our products and services, and we want all of them to be equally successful in the marketplace. And we did see a rebound in those same cities toward the end of the quarter in the June time frame. I can just tell you that looking at the numbers, there does appear to be headwinds in addition to the four items that we can articulate and we believe those to be macroeconomic headwinds. And you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you saw sort of the record number of switchers in the quarter. As we move from the June to the September quarter, maybe can you dig a level deeper and kind of help us understand some of the moving pieces in the services business? And so we're really looking at all of these things from the installed base to the number of switchers to the geographic distribution. And when you think about the number of challenges in the quarter, we feel really good about the growth that we put up for the quarter. And if you look at the June quarter, we do believe that we saw macroeconomic headwinds that impacted our business and our results. And so it's a mixed bag in terms of what we believe that we saw. And the iPad installed base reached a new all-time high, with over half of the customers during the quarter being new to the product. We set a June quarter revenue record of $83 billion, up 2% year over year despite supply constraints, over 300 basis points of foreign exchange headwinds and the impact of our business in Russia. Around the world, we set new June quarter records in the Americas, in Europe, and rest of Asia Pacific. Turning to iPhone. We set a June quarter record for both revenue and switchers to iPhone. With its advanced performance, capability and ease of use, customers continue to find that iPhone remains the gold standard for smartphones.

Apple beats on revenue and profit, expects growth to accelerate ... (CNBC)

Apple reported fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and profit but showed slowing growth for the iPhone maker.

Cook said that the iPad decline was also driven by supply constraints and a strong dollar. Cook said the ultimate hit came in under $4 billion. It includes monthly subscriptions, payment fees, warranties, search licensing fees from Google, and revenue from the iPhone App Store. Apple typically releases new iPhones in September and sales fall as customers anticipate new models. Apple's soft growth may suggest that the consumer electronics industry — including leaders like Apple — is headed for a period of slow or no growth. Apple did not provide formal guidance for the quarter. Cook said the results were better than expected and CFO Luca Maestri said it was a "challenging operating environment." "We do see inflation in our cost structure," Cook said. - Mac revenue: $7.38 billion vs. - Services revenue: $19.60 billion vs. - Revenue: $83 billion vs. - iPhone revenue: $40.67 billion vs.

Listen to the Apple (AAPL) Q3 2022 earnings call here (Shacknews)

Apple (AAPL) is set to release its Q3 2022 earnings results and host a conference call discussing said earnings today, which you can listen to here on ...

Make sure you tune in to hear Apple’s Q3 2022 earnings call. It was just last month in June that consumers got a chance to see what new services and devices Apple has been working on. This conference call will be happening today and you can tune in via the Shacknews Twitch channel.

Apple Narrowly Tops Estimates as iPhone Fares Better Than Feared (Bloomberg)

With investors on edge about an economic slowdown, Apple Inc. offered just enough good news Thursday to calm fears -- and bought itself some time to ready a ...

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) CEO Timothy Cook on Q3 2022 Results ... (Seeking Alpha)

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:AAPL) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call July 28, 2022, 17:00 ET Company Participants Tejas Gala - IR Contact Timothy Cook - CEO ...

What matters to us, I think it goes back to Tim was saying earlier, is we want to make sure that people love our products and services, and we want all of them to be equally successful in the marketplace. And we did see a rebound in those same cities toward the end of the quarter in the June time frame. And in particular, in the run-up to June 18, which as you know, is a major shopping holiday in China. We think that the net of that was still a negative, but some of it did rebound by June time frame. That's a big number right there that is going to affect us, that we are having some impact from the situation in Russia and that is obviously different from normal seasonality as well. To give you a little more color on what we saw in the June quarter, we came in slightly below, from a constraint point of view, the $4 billion number that we had put, at the 4 to 8 are the low end of that range. And that's utilizing iPhone and iPad. And of course, we are in the business of innovation so we're always exploring new and emerging technologies. I just wanted to circle back on sort of the macro and sort of the demand signals that you're seeing versus sort of the supply chains that you're facing. As we move from the June to the September quarter, maybe can you dig a level deeper and kind of help us understand some of the moving pieces in the Services business? But I think the way to think about it, certainly the way we think about it is that there's a number of levers in our Services business to take into account. And then as you mentioned, the breadth and the quality of the services that we offer tends to grow over time. And if you look at the June quarter, we do believe that we saw macroeconomic headwinds that impacted our business and our results. And finally, we continue to improve the breadth and the quality of our current Services offerings, from a constant flow of new content on Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade to great new features we recently announced for iCloud and Apple Music, which we believe our customers will love.

Apple (AAPL) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y (Yahoo Finance)

Apple's (AAPL) third-quarter fiscal 2022 results reflect steady demand for iPhone 13 and continued momentum in Services segments.

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Apple Q3 Revenue Hit $83 Billion Amid Inflation -- Should You Buy ... (GOBankingRates)

Apple reported its earnings on July 28, posting a record revenue of $83 billion for the third quarter -- led by iPhone revenue of $40.67 billion -- which ...

“Looking ahead, we believe the key to Apple’s success over the next 6-12 months will be the company’s ability to capitalize on the iPhone upgrade cycle while staying on track for the fall of 2022. “The Street was waiting for any signs of demand issues from Apple and instead got the opposite. “Our June quarter results continued to demonstrate our ability to manage our business effectively despite the challenging operating environment.

Apple: It Could Have Been Worse (Seeking Alpha)

Fiscal Q3 revenues miss slightly, but EPS beat estimates. Accelerating growth in Q4 was already expected. Near-term upside may be limited. Apple ...

There was a lot of buying going into this report, and I don't think it was enough to get shares close to their all-time highs until we get more data on consumer spending and the Fed's plans over the next couple of months. Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. Q4 guidance didn't tell us a lot that we didn't already know, as analysts were expecting growth to jump a bit in the September period. As I mentioned previously, this year's iPhone lineup may not be strong as the past couple of years, so that could provide a headwind to sales over the next couple of quarters. If I use the Apple 3.0 numbers, the iPhone did very well, coming in more than a billion dollars ahead of the overall survey average. Also, just saying that growth is expected to accelerate in fiscal Q4 doesn't exactly calm fears of a consumer slowdown. I know management doesn't want to give a precise forecast given all the uncertainty out there, but for example 4% growth in fiscal Q4 is an acceleration of growth from the June period, and that number still would be well below current street estimates. Management certainly took advantage of lower stock prices in the quarter to continue rewarding investors. For the items that use percentages like gross margins, the change is the actual percentage change and not the rate of change. However, increasing services margins and that segment becoming a large portion of the company's total revenue base almost all but offset those losses. I had mentioned in my preview article that analysts were expecting a bit of margin compression, but Apple did come in ahead of the street. The company stated that it lost over three percentage points of growth due to currency issues and the Russian business impact.

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