U.S GDP

2022 - 7 - 28

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Image courtesy of "The Hill"

US GDP falls for second straight quarter, stoking recession fears (The Hill)

The U.S. economy appeared to shrink for the second consecutive quarter, according to federal data released Thursday, amid growing concern the U.S. could be ...

President Biden and White House officials have tried to convince Americans that the U.S. economy is not yet in a recession thanks to a strong job market. “Whether the economy meets the conventional or formal definition of recession is in many respects immaterial. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” Biden said in a Thursday statement. We invite you to join the discussion on Facebook and Twitter. But economists in the U.S. consider a broader range of data when determining if the U.S. is in recession. Instead, economists turn to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a think tank not affiliated with the government, to make that call. Consumer spending rose 1 percent over the quarter, driven largely by a 4.1 percent increase in spending on services. Gross private domestic investment — which includes sales of buildings, equipment and intellectual property — fell 13.5 percent in the second quarter after rising 5 percent during the first three months of the year. Republican lawmakers were quick to release their own declarations of recession. However, we don’t believe the economy is in a recession,” he continued. Put simply, the U.S. economy would shrink by nearly 1 percent if the second quarter’s pace of growth lasted for an entire year. The unemployment rate in June was 3.6 percent, just 0.1 percentage point higher than before the pandemic began, and there were roughly two open jobs for every unemployed American since May.

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Image courtesy of "NPR"

U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a ... (NPR)

GDP shrank for a 2nd quarter in a row. While two consecutive quarters of negative growth is often considered a recession, it's not an official definition.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and ... (CNBC)

Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate.

Since 1948, the economy has never seen consecutive quarterly growth declines without being in a recession. That resulted in a decline of inflation-adjusted after-tax personal income of 0.5%, while the personal saving rate was 5.2%, down from 5.6% in the first quarter. The economic slowdown has created a political headache for the White House as well. "It really was to script," Zandi said of the report. That only intensified when Russia invaded Ukraine in February and, more recently, when China enacted strict shutdown measures to battle a burst of Covid cases. The Federal Reserve over the past four months has raised benchmark borrowing rates by 2.25 percentage points. But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. "The only encouraging thing was that inventories played such a large role. Consumer spending, as measured through personal consumption expenditures, increased just 1% for the period as inflation accelerated. Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. Gross private domestic investment tumbled 13.5% for the three-month period Markets reacted little to the news, with stocks slightly lower at the open.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row (Financial Times)

The US economy shrank for a second consecutive quarter, meeting one of the common criteria for a technical recession and complicating the Federal Reserve's ...

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

US Economy Shrinks for a Second Quarter, Fueling Recession Fears (Bloomberg)

The drumbeat of recession grew louder after the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and ...

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U.S. GDP contracts again in second quarter, fanning recession fears (Nikkei Asia)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. economy contracted again in the second quarter amid aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve to.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the softening economic activity as a result of tighter monetary policy. Jobless claims remain below the 270,000-350,000 range that economists say would signal an increase in the unemployment rate. The economy contracted at a 1.6% pace in the first quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 253,000 applications for the latest week. Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in the first half of the year, which is generating strong wage gains. Still, the risks of a downturn have increased.

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Bitcoin Market Awaits US GDP After Biggest Single-Day Gain in 6 ... (Coindesk)

With the Federal Reserve ditching forward guidance, data releases on GDP and inflation could inject more volatility into markets than ever.

The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. "Nice uptick on bitcoin after the FOMC raise rates by 75 bps, meeting expectations," Secure Digital Markets, a Toronto-based digital assets brokerage, said in a Telegram-based research channel. Risk assets surged on Monday after Powell said the central bank would likely need to slow the rate increases at some point. At press time, markets seem convinced that the Fed will opt for slower rate increases in the coming months. The data is pivotal as it would reveal the damage caused by inflation being at a 40-year high and could inject volatility into markets. "GDP is out this week.

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

G.D.P. Report Shows U.S. Economy Shrank Again: Live Updates (The New York Times)

Gross domestic product fell by 0.2 percent in the second quarter, after a 0.4 percent decline in the first, fueling fears that a recession may have already ...

The collapse in economic activity in the first months of the pandemic was so broad and so severe that the bureau declared it a recession even though it lasted only two months. But it is usually clear in hindsight, which is why the dating committee waits so long — typically as much as a year — to make its pronouncements. How has the economic volatility in recent months affected you as a worker or a business owner? The risk is that, in trying to control inflation, the Fed will slow demand so much that companies start laying off workers, unemployment rises sharply and the economy falls into a recession. Those estimates, however, benefit from long-term data sets that allow analysts to compare the effects of temperature and extreme weather events over time. The biggest decrease in spending also came from food, in the form of groceries and meals meant to be eaten at home, which subtracted 0.65 percentage points from growth. That happened in the second quarter, with spending on services growing 4.1 percent on an annualized basis, but not enough to prevent a significant slowdown. A decrease in demand will be crucial to keeping those prices in check — and make the Federal Reserve’s job somewhat easier. By raising the cost of borrowing money, the Fed hopes to bring down demand, and with it, inflation. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.” Business investment and construction activity both fell in the second quarter after rising in the first. Inventories, which measure the amount of stuff that’s been produced or imported but not yet sold, depressed the overall number by more than two percentage points on an annual basis.

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Image courtesy of "Vox"

What the GDP report doesn't tell us about the economy and the world (Vox)

When we focus on the topline GDP number, we lose focus of its implications (or lack thereof) on inequality, climate change, and well-being.

It is literally like people knowing that the meteorite is coming toward us, and it’s going to kill us, but we just simply don’t look up. So when it comes to you and I figuring out what we want the world to look like, what is important in our lives, that is something other than just simply money. What needs to change is the operating system that is growth-dependent capitalism. It is a quite adequate measure for the success of capitalism, and it measures quite well the accumulation of money and wealth among the rich. I have done interviews with corporate CEOs who very frankly admit that the business model they’re currently operating under is not sustainable, that it will hurt the world and the planet in ways that are irreversible. Say we’re passengers on a train racing toward a cliff, and the only metric that matters in that train is its increase in speed. We are at this tragic moment in history in which we can say both that if we continue to grow, we will kill ourselves, and if we stop growing, we will suffer greatly within capitalism. It doesn’t measure the stress of people, the loneliness of people, the illness of people; it doesn’t consider any of that. So they commissioned this famous economist by the name of Simon Kuznets to come together with these figures that would give them some idea as to where and how to intervene in the economy. One such critic is Dirk Philipsen, an economic historian at Duke University and the author of The Little Big Number: How GDP Came to Rule the World and What to Do About It. In his view, GDP is an “extremely destructive” metric, and the world’s continued attention to it could have dire consequences. That’s amazing, because it is a metric that essentially measures the well-being of capital — not of people, and not of the environment. GDP measures the monetary value of goods and services produced in a country.

US GDP data: Recession fears deepen as economy contracts for ... (Economic Times)

The US economy contracted for a second straight quarter between April and June, government data showed Thursday, fueling recession fears just months before ...

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Dow Jumps 300 Points Despite U.S. GDP Shrinking For A Second ... (Forbes)

The stock market moved higher on Thursday despite U.S. economic growth contracting for the second quarter in a row, a significant recession indicator which ...

Though LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach agrees “we are not in recession” as consumer spending remains “strong,” the latest data does have implications for Federal Reserve policy going forward, he argues. Fed officials said that another 75 basis point increase is possible for September, though most experts expect 50 basis points. It will be a “close call” whether the U.S. economy is able to “dodge recession” amid a multitude of headwinds from tightening monetary policy, high food and gas prices, a strong dollar and ongoing fears of an economic downturn, says Adams. “Another negative shock like an energy crisis in Europe this winter would be enough to push the U.S. into a recession,” he predicts. “With solid job growth in the first half of the year, the economy didn’t look like it was in a recession,” says Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams, though he warns that the outlook for the rest of the year and into 2023 is a lot “dicier.” While the latest data no doubt adds to ongoing fears of an economic downturn in markets—especially as the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively hike interest rates, many experts still argue that the economy is not yet in a full recession, citing the strong labor market and solid consumer spending. The stock market moved higher on Thursday despite U.S. economic growth contracting for the second quarter in a row, a significant recession indicator which spooked markets—though most experts argue that the economy is yet to fall into a true recession thanks to solid job growth and consumer spending.

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Wall St ends up sharply for 2nd day; Amazon, Apple jump after hours (Reuters)

U.S. economy contracts in the second quarter · Meta Platforms revenue drops for first time · Ford shares gain after results · Indexes: Dow up 1%, S&P 500 up 1.2%, ...

read more read more read more The Fed on Wednesday raised the benchmark overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. read more read more read more Amazon.com ended the regular session up 1.1%. read more Shares of Apple (AAPL.O) were up more than 3% after hours following the company's quarterly report and upbeat forecast, and S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 2% late. After the closing bell, Amazon.com shares shot up more than 12% as the online retailer reported quarterly sales that beat Wall Street estimates. Among them, Ford Motor Co (F.N) shares jumped 6.1% after it reported a better-than-expected quarterly net income.

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Wall Street rallies as US GDP falls for a second straight quarter ... (ABC News)

The US economy enters what some economists may define as a recession, but stocks on Wall Street are booming and Australian shares are taking cues as traders ...

It is the main tool used to measure a nation's economic health. However the measure is debated, and it is being challenged in this instance as the US is experiencing a tight labour market and wage growth. Two quarters in a row of declining GDP is what some economists define as a recession. GDP is figured out by measuring the value of all the services and goods produced in an economy. - The latest data shows the US economy's GDP declined again in the latest quarter - Two declines in a row is what some define as a recession

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Image courtesy of "The Straits Times"

US stocks end about 1% higher, shrugging off weak GDP data (The Straits Times)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes up 1 per cent, at 32523.70. Read more at straitstimes.com.

The US central bank on Wednesday announced its second straight 75 basis point increase, and signaled it is prepared to do more. "The real catalyst... JetBlue fell 0.4 per cent. is a belief that bad news (earnings disappointments and weak data) is good news (fewer rate hikes from the Fed)," Briefing.com said in an analysis. But markets pivoted later in the morning, betting that clear signs of economic weakness would prompt the Fed to ease off on steep increases in borrowing costs. The broad-based S&P 500 climbed 1.2 per cent to 4,072.43, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tacked on 1.1 per cent to 12,162.59.

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