Recession

The U.S. economy contracted for a second straight quarter in Q2 according to the latest GDP data, sparking plenty of recession chatter around Wall Street.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers points to other key indicators, such as the continued strength of consumer spending and job growth in the first half of the year, as positive signs that we are not in a recession. While it seems inaccurate to think of the first half of the year as a recession, the outlook for the second half and into 2023 is dicier." The second quarter saw big headwinds to growth from nondurable goods spending as consumers pulled back in the face of higher gas and food prices. And they clearly won't reduce the odds of a real recession." The economy is highly vulnerable to slipping into a recession. - "The back-to-back contraction of GDP will feed the debate about whether the U.S. is in, or soon headed for, a recession. - "While this morning's GDP reading marks two negative quarters of GDP growth, we'll push back on the notion that we're in a recession. But the more important point is that the economy has quickly lost steam in the face of four-decade high inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs, and a general tightening in financial conditions. It is too early to call the end of this expansion, but the hour is fast approaching." - "Insisting upon the precise definition of recession will be an even more fraught task in light of the unequivocal deterioration in economic activity reflected in today's 0.9% contraction in Q2 real GDP. Yet real consumer spending continued to forge ahead and the job market still has legs. The economy created 2.7 million jobs in the first half of 2022. It's nigh impossible to call a recession in real time when the economic cycle hasn't been rocked by years of exogenous shocks.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

She did not discuss the impact that monetary and fiscal stimulus had on price pressures. Consumer and business confidence levels have plunged, with recent surveys showing a solid majority of Americans believe the country is in recession. "We know there are challenges ahead of us. The National Bureau of Economic Research, however, is the official arbiter of recessions, and likely won't rule for months. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a glass-half-full assessment of the US economy, acknowledging a slowdown that she called necessary to tame inflation ...

The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter. While some call that a recession or a strong sign of one, a financial economist explains why the term ...

The economy does not appear to be in a recession at the moment, given how strong the labor market is. “It doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening.” Right now it’s flat, but when it starts to decline, a recession is usually on its heels. Keep in mind, 2021 boasted one of its best U.S. economies in decades, so maybe Americans can accept a so-so 2022. Recessions are complicated to identify, given that the economy is big and has many parts. While two quarters of economic contraction typically do coincide with a recession, they also do not typically involve the hot job growth the U.S. economy has seen this year. The economy is typically not in recession if almost everyone who wants a job has one. Some observers suggest the two quarters of contraction constitute a “technical recession” or the “ unofficial start” of one, while others suggest it at least raises fears or signals it’s on the way. 1) How quickly the economy is contracting. As for some of the more negative news, investment in residential housing and property declined 14%, which makes sense given how much it had been rising since the pandemic upended the housing market. In theory, they should move more or less in tandem, but gross domestic income continues to grow. The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate 0.9% from April through June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated on July 28, 2022.

Fears of a recession continue to intensify, making a strong case for defensive stocks for investors worried about slowing growth.

Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn held sizable stakes in the SPDR Gold Trust and the iShares Silver Trust ETF as of the end of March. Commodities like silver and gold are also considered hedges against rising prices. Precious metals like gold and silver are also viewed as defensive assets historically as they tend to hold value well in market downturns. GDP fell at a 0.9% annualized rate in the second quarter after a 1.6% decline in the first three months of the year, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession.

NOW that the US economy has posted two consecutive quarters of negative growth, is it in recession? Read more at The Business Times.

Now that the US economy has posted two consecutive quarters of negative growth, is it in recession? Opinions are starkly divided.

Its Business Cycle Dating Committee uses several data points to determine when the economy is in expansion or recession. WASHINGTON (AFP) - Now that the US economy has posted two consecutive quarters of negative growth, is it in recession? the White House said in a blog post last week, apparently trying to get the jump on Thursday's data release. "The NBER's definition emphasises that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." "A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point," the NBER said on its website. For IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, "the general assessment as to whether the economy is in a recession overall is a little bit more complex".

Bear markets accompanied by a recession tend to be steeper than those without an economic downturn, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Among ...

UBS Global Wealth Management earlier this month said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,300 in such a scenario, an 18% decline from Wednesday's close. Peron likes shares of healthcare and software companies in the current environment, as well as real estate investment trusts. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com To be sure, not everyone believes the U.S. economy is in a recession. Some investors have also pointed to data showing the economy remains on solid footing. Thursday's data showed gross domestic product fell at a 0.9% annualized rate last quarter. Still, data from Deutsche Bank showed that since 1947, there have never been two successive quarters of negative economic growth without an accompanying recession. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter – fulfilling an often-cited definition of a recession. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Here's the Big Thing to know today: The US economy shrank in the second quarter of the year, and that does indeed meet the unofficial criteria for being in ...

"I'm not a fan of either merger," Keyes said. Economists say the biggest reason it would be premature to call a recession based on Thursday's numbers is that the data can and probably will change. "It's clear that over the past two years, the combination of the pandemic, record low mortgage rates and the opportunity to work remotely spurred greater demand," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Frontier was all set to acquire Spirit with a $2.8 billion cash-and-stock deal. That's because Spirit and Frontier, with their ultra-low-cost business models, serve an important role in forcing larger airlines to cut prices. Something's off, of course, but your doctor isn't going to isn't going to give you a diagnoses if they don't actually know what's wrong with you (or we hope they wouldn't, anyway.) That is still significantly higher than this time last year when it was 2.8%. Take the GDP data with a grain of salt, as Powell put it yesterday. A lot of economists, plus President Joe Biden and Fed Chief Jerome Powell, say it's not likely. The debate about "recession" vs "not recession" is mostly semantics, but I get it — it's comforting to be able to put a label on things as a shorthand for everything that feels crummy. "Now, as the market adjusts to a higher rate environment, we are seeing a period of deflated sales activity until the market normalizes." - For starters, every single one of the eight members is White, and in fact the panel has never included a person of color, according to Gary Hoover, co-chair of the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession.

A second-straight quarterly decline in GDP meets a widely cited definition for recession. Experts say the economy isn't there quite yet.

But if you're investing for a long-term goal, such as retirement, now's a great time to continue to consistently invest in the market. "It's hard to call it a major economic contraction." If you're not worried about yourself, maybe you don't need to worry that much." The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is in charge of declaring recessions and expansions and likely won't make a judgment for months. "Great," you may be thinking. And when it does, GDP — a broad measure of economic activity — will only be one of the many factors the bureau's economists will consider.

Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession. And with good reason: 10 out of the last 10 times the US economy shrank for ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that he does not think the economy is currently in recession, but yield curves say something else. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July for the third straight month. Household spending grew in June by 1.1%, up from a revised 0.3% increase in May, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. In the 11 times the Fed raised rates, the Fed has successfully avoided recession only three times. in the second quarter, but a slowdown in inventory accumulation removed a whopping 2 percentage points from output. It has yet to use the "recession" label. In May, there were about two open positions for every job seeker, along with historically low levels of layoffs. Consumer spending, the largest part of the US economy, is rising. Last year, businesses stocked up on goods to get ahead of supply chain woes and in anticipation of post-Covid consumer demand, but now they may be overstocked. It also signals that consumer demand could be weakening, another sign of this week, raising fears that the country has entered -- or will soon enter -- recession territory. Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession.

Nuveen CIO Saira Malik says investors need to focus on quality and resilience for their stock picks.

Malik also likes PPG Industries (PPG, $127), a paint and coating supplier that she considers to be a “high quality” company. Their cloud business is strong, and in a period of weaker macro, customers could start to consolidate vendors and Microsoft should be a market share winner in that scenario,” she argues. Salesforce (CRM, $180), meanwhile, is a similarly “resilient, flagship technology company” that’s benefitting from the continued transition to the cloud. For Malik, there’s a particular way investors should play this: “I want areas where, if I’m taking the risk, I’m getting rewarded for it,” she says. (As for Thursday’s negative GDP number, Malik says she would “call it a technical recession rather than a textbook recession.”) Malik points to two key risks she’s eyeing: earnings estimates declining—what she calls the “next shoe to drop”—and how aggressive the Fed will end up being to combat inflation.

Despite fresh data Thursday indicating the U.S. economy is shrinking, Head Economist at JPMorgan Commercial Banking Jim Glassman remains in the optimist's camp: ...

One data point that particularly buoys Glassman’ outlook is overall business capital spending, which has remained at a relatively high level of 13.48% of GDP, about even with 13.47% in the first quarter, he said. Glassman said the GDP was expected to soften but the capex number reported today is a welcome positive sign. To be sure, the barrage of mixed data and news tracking the economy’s struggles has affected financial executive’s outlook, Glassman acknowledged. It would only happen if inflation became such a problem that the Fed would decide to be more restrictive,” Glassman said in an interview Wednesday. In an email Thursday he confirmed he was unmoved by the new data. And the Fed’s caution (sensitivity) to incoming news, now that [Federal Reserve Chair] Mr. Powell acknowledged that policy is relatively neutral, reinforces that,” Glassman wrote in an email Thursday. But, while businesses are cautious they “don’t appear to be bracing for a broader contraction,” he said.

Energy companies are making record profits, so why is the major French utilities struggling? Plus, tech earnings this week were all over the place and so were ...

You can read more on all of these stories at FT.com. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Make sure you check back next week for the latest business news. The FT’s Katie Martin is here to break this down in our weekly markets chat. The market reaction to all this was surprising. Joanna Kao Joanna Kao What is the government planning to do to address these issues? Joanna Kao Joanna Kao Joanna Kao The FT’s Kate Duguid explains. I’m Joanna Kao, in for Marc Filippino, and here’s the news you need to start your day. Joanna Kao

Hello. Today we look at the US recession debate, a sudden switch in America's growth prospects versus China's and how the US labor market may not be as ...

If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job ...

To combat the doom and gloom, make a practice of staying positive. You want to tap into the people you know and trust for job leads. It's easy to succumb to the never-ending barrage of negative news. Twitter is a valuable medium to share your expertise and wisdom, attract an audience and let them know about your search efforts. The one thing you have is the ability to manage and drive your own career. Explain why you are seeking a new role and concisely share the responsibilities you held at your last couple of jobs. You need to know the differences, so you won’t get offended if a retained recruiter ignores your reach out. Send invitations to people who may have access to the jobs you desire. LinkedIn is an excellent way to start if you are a mid to senior-level, white-collar professional. It would be naive to think that the litany of woes, such as supply chain disruptions, inflation eating into your paycheck and savings, an endless war in Eastern Europe, constant political in-fighting and a steady flow of announced downsizing, won’t impact your job and career. If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job losses, businesses would pick up on their lead and engage in massive cost-cutting initiatives to remain solvent. It doesn’t matter if the United States is in a recession or not.

"It is not entirely clear whether a recession has begun," said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic analyst. Here's a look at what consumers are in for ...

That makes this a particularly good time to identify the loans you have outstanding and see if refinancingmakes sense. "All in all, this means that a recession would make it harder for people to get mortgages and to buy homes," Channel said. "If they expect they will be forced to cut back, the sooner they do it, the better off they'll be," Harris said. That may mean cutting a few expenses now that you just want and really don't need, such as the subscription services that you signed up for during the pandemic. And, even if prices fluctuate, "as long as you stay the course and keep making your payments, you'll probably end up being OK." If you don't use it, lose it. - Avoid variable rates. While the impact of a recession would be felt broadly, every household would experience a pullback to a different degree, depending on income, savings and financial standing. "It is not entirely clear whether a recession has begun given the continued strength of the job market," he said. The housing market is in a much better place than it was in the early 2000s, Channel said. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." - Here's a look at what consumers are in for in the months ahead, and what they can do about it now.

How are people coping at a time when the economy is struggling? The U.S. economy contracted for the second-straight quarter, which traditionally signals a ...

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Will there be a recession? And, if so, just how bad will it be for my finances? Those questions are looming large for Americans after the Federal Reserve ...

So instead of buying new equipment or hiring a full-time staffer to take advantage of a new business opportunity today, consider renting the equipment or bringing someone in as a contractor. Or, you might consider a new role that is less susceptible to layoffs when the economy is contracting. ... We'll be back to a place where it matters if your home is in good shape," Fratantoni said. What you can do is figure out what resources you have to handle a worst-case scenario, such as job loss or illness, Lima said. While it will become increasingly expensive to take out a mortgage as rates rise, buyers will face less competition for each property. And when it comes to deciding whether to put in an offer, "they may have a couple of days to think about it instead of hours," Fratantoni said. Improve your odds of staying employed: You may not be that highly sought after cybersecurity specialist that every Fortune 500 company wants. That means home sellers will no longer be able to price their properties 15% higher than what their neighbor's house just sold for. for the second quarter in a row. Companies have been reticent to let go of anybody," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of global outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. The White House and other government leaders are saying the economy remains healthy. That's created a lot of mixed signals.

Most economists think the country is not in the throes of a major downturn, but the outlook is far from rosy.

President Joe Biden held two events Thursday where he made the case that the economy is not in a recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

"But if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a rare, stand-alone news conference at the Treasury in between the president's two events. In the past few months, consumer and business confidence levels have plunged. "That is not what we are seeing right now," she said. The leaders of Corning, Marriott International, Bank of America, TIAA and Deloitte were all present, with Marriott's Tony Capuano and Corning's Wendell Weeks attending in person. The official arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, likely won't rule for months. He then listed several companies planning to build factories in the U.S. before concluding, "that doesn't sound like a recession to me." Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter. - Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. "Let me just give you what the facts are in terms of the state of the economy," Biden said in a speech that was billed as remarks on the latest budget bill in Congress. "Number one, we have a record job market, and record unemployment of 3.6%, and businesses are investing in America at record rates." - On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter.

LONDON : One day you're out and the next day you're in: the world's battered sovereign bond markets are back in favour as global recession fears mount.

Just before the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points in mid-June, they had priced U.S. rates peaking at over 4 per cent in 2023 and just one quarter-point rate cut by the end of next year. Advertisement Advertisement Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy contracted again in the second quarter. ING senior rates strategist Antoine Bouvet said he would not be surprised if Germany's 10-year Bund yield tested 0.5 per cent in coming months. Advertisement But a shift appears to be taking place as signs of slowing economic growth suggest a peak in official interest rates is nearing. Advertisement

Inflation is so first half, as least as far as bond investors are concerned.

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which determines recession dates for 22 economies ...

Particularly susceptible to recessionary downdrafts are manufacturing jobs, especially those with capital goods manufacturers, like industrial and heavy machinery producers, as well as jobs with suppliers that are forced to bear the brunt of demand shifts at the consumer level. The packed airports this summer might make this hard to believe, but jobs related to air travel, such as those in flight services and travel agencies, are at significant risk going forward. For the most part, food and beverage businesses are recession-resistant because people must eat and drink. But law firms that work on mergers and acquisitions will definitely see business fall off during recessionary bear markets. This includes health care jobs like those in hospitals, nursing homes and doctors' offices. In addition, the GDP number often goes through several revisions as the Commerce Department refines its calculations and new data becomes available.

A tightened labor market could give companies the chance to force more employees back to the office. RF wfh work from home computer laptopdog.

It may be months before we know if the US has shifted into a recession based on new GDP estimates. But for those thinking of starting their own business if ...

With an LLC in your name, instead of operating as a sole proprietor, you can take out credit cards in your business’s name. Beginning the conversations now will not commit you to anything. In fact, you likely already know what you want to focus on in your solo-venture. Building it now while you still have your full-time role will give you a cushion if the job disappears sooner than you expect. Will you need specialized software to achieve the results and quality you demand? Will you need specific tools or a new vehicle to do the job?

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, about whether the U.S. is in a recession, and how people are ...

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While no job is completely immune to economic headwinds, certain roles tend to fare better than others during a downturn.

"This is not the time to shuffle jobs." "They're going to have momentum for quite a while." Jobs in the public sector, including clerks and police officers, have also benefited from increased government spending during past recessions. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the second straight meeting in an attempt to bring inflation under control. Still, if you're considering quitting jobs or switching careers, Earle stresses the importance of exercising extreme caution in your search. The jobs that are the "first to go" when a recession hits are the ones that depend on consumer spending and people having copious disposable income, Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at LinkedIn, says.