CPI

2022 - 7 - 13

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Image courtesy of "The Wall Street Journal"

June CPI Report Live Updates: U.S. Inflation Rate Reached 9.1% (The Wall Street Journal)

U.S. inflation reached 9.1% in June, its highest rate in nearly 41 years. The consumer-price index's reading for June was higher than May's annual rate of ...

Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, jumped immediately after the CPI data was released. That was above the 0.5% increase forecast by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.\n\nThe yield on the 10-year note is still down from its 2022 peak of nearly 3.5%, reflecting recent evidence of slowing economic growth and even some signs of moderating inflation pressures identified outside of CPI reports.

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Inflation hits new 40-year high as gas, food rent costs surge. Another ... (USA TODAY)

Inflation reaches new 40-year high amid surging gas, food, rent prices. The Federal Reserve is likely to approve another big rate hike this month.

And beef and veal prices decreased by 2.3%. Last month, cereal prices rose 2.5% and were up 14.2% from a year ago. Barclays economist Pooja Sriram, however, believes higher fertilizer costs for farmers could keep grocery prices fairly high throughout the year. Grocery prices rose 1% and 12.2% over the past 12 months. There are signs inflation is poised to ease this year. Bread was up 1.6% from the prior month and climbed 10.8% annually.

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U.S. CPI preview: Past the headline, into the core (Kitco NEWS)

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices that urban consumers spend on a basket of goods, ...

Putting gasoline in the tank and food on the table is dampening demand for discretionary goods. An easing of annual core CPI is likely the most crucial element of the report, as investors look for further confirmation that inflation has peaked, which could potentially convince the Federal Reserve not to become even more aggressive in its interest rate hikes. U.S. CPI preview: Past the headline, into the core

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US CPI Preview: Inflation Likely to Climb to New 40-Year High (Coindesk)

A hotter-than-expected core CPI figure could bring renewed selling pressure to the bitcoin market.

U.S. Inflation Gauge Jumps to Fresh 4-Decade High of 9.1%; Bitcoin Falls

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U.S. inflation climbs to new 41-year high of 9.1%, CPI shows, as gas ... (MarketWatch)

Surging gasoline prices last month drove the rate of U.S. inflation to a nearly 41-year peak of 9.1%, offering little hope of help soon for Americans...

The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. topped $5 for the first time ever. Rents have risen 5.8% in the last 12 months. Food prices climbed a 1% last month, however, and show little sign of coming down. Indeed, gas prices have fallen sharply in the past month. The good news? Yet many economists are doubtful the Fed can succeed in achieving what is referred to as a “soft landing.” Unless inflation relents soon, the Fed will keep jacking up interest rates. Consumers face unpalatable decisions on what to buy and what to forego. Worker wages aren’t keeping up with price increases — real hourly wages have fallen 3.1% in the past year. The increase in inflation over the past year rose to 9.1% to 8.6%. The last time inflation was so high was in November 1981. The Fed views the core rate as a more accurate measure of future inflation trends because gas and food prices tend to go up and down quickly and usually don’t stay high for very long. The numbers: Surging gasoline prices last month drove the rate of U.S. inflation to a nearly 41-year peak of 9.1%, offering little hope of help soon for Americans suffering from a high cost of living.

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King Dollar may spike on higher US CPI - Financial Mirror (Financial Mirror)

By Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Exinity Group. Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of the US inflation data later Wednesday which will hold great sway over ...

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Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as price ... (CNBC)

The consumer price index increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 5.9%, ...

"The challenge we face today is it's not that 1-3 percent anymore, it's 10 to 20 percent depending on what cost bucket you're talking about." Much of inflation rise came from gasoline prices, which increased 11.2% on the month and just shy of 60% for the 12-month period. Energy prices surged 7.5% on the month and were up 41.6% on a 12-month basis. Airline fares were one of the few areas seeing a decline, falling 1.8% in June though still up 34.1% from a year ago. How do we look at the costs coming in?" That has come as wheat futures have fallen 8% since July 1, while soybeans are down 6% and corn is off 6.6% during the same period. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981. Corporate profits, however, have increased just 1.3% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2021, when inflation took hold. But I do think we're on an upswing." Traders upped their bets on the pace of interest rate increases ahead. "For probably 10 to 15 years before the pandemic, the industry fell into a stable routine where costs up across the board somewhere between 1 to 3 percent a year. Electricity costs rose 1.7% and 13.7%, respectively.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

US Inflation Quickens to 9.1%, Amping Up Fed Pressure to Go Big (Bloomberg)

US Inflation Quickens to 9.1%, Amping Up Fed Pressure to Go Big · Consumer price index climbed 1.3% from May, most since 2005 · Increase reflected higher gasoline ...

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The CPI Inflation Rate A Sizzling 9.1% In June; Dow Jones Tumbles (Investor's Business Daily)

The CPI inflation rate data hit a new 40-year high in June. Here's what it means for Federal Reserve policy and the Dow Jones.

Prices for new vehicles increased 0.7% on the month, while rising 11.4% from a year ago. Prices for food away from home rose 0.9% in June vs. Core goods prices rose 0.8% on the month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 7.2% from 8.5% in May. However, used car inflation has come down sharply from a peak 35.3% annual gain in March. Demand for used cars got a boost amid the global chip shortage that snagged production for new autos. The Nasdaq slid 2.3% on Monday and 0.95% on Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 3.03% after the CPI report. As of Tuesday's close, the Dow was down 15.8% from its all-time closing high on Jan. 4. The latter includes government purchases on behalf of consumers such as by Medicare and Medicaid. It also factors in a substitution effect, when high prices lead consumers to adapt purchasing behavior. The 0.7% monthly rise in the core consumer price index, if sustained, would add up to a 8.4% annual core inflation rate. March's 6.5% core inflation rate was the highest since August 1982. Following the CPI report, the Dow Jones industrial average opened sharply lower open on expectations for further aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.X

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Remained High in June (The New York Times)

The Consumer Price Index rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, a 40-year high that defied expectations of moderating price pressures.

Higher prices at least aren’t deterring shoppers from buying drinks and snacks, PepsiCo said in its earnings report on Tuesday, leading the company to raise its forecast for revenue this year, citing the “resilience” of consumer spending. A so-called “core” inflation index, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to get a better sense of underlying price pressures, picked up by 5.9 percent in June from a year earlier. That rapid-fire policy response comes as the Fed gets nervous that high inflation could become a more permanent part of the economy if it is not decisively counteracted. Food prices continued to be one of the largest contributors to inflation, rising 10.4 percent in the year leading up to June, the biggest annual increase since 1981. Biden administration officials are bracing for another jump in inflation, but warning that the report, which is for June, will not reflect the recent decline in gasoline prices that has been driven by falling global oil prices. “The Fed is going to have to slow the economy materially and in a much faster fashion than if inflation was lower or at least starting to respond,” Mr. Ryan said. It’s a clear sign that despite a small moderation in core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, investors are betting that the Fed will remain aggressive in its attempts to pull inflation down by raising interest rates. Many central bankers have been clear that they want to make another 0.75-point increase in July, and that they hope to raise rates into the neighborhood of 3.5 percent by the end of the year. Food prices rose 10.4 percent in the year leading up to June, the biggest annual increase since 1981. For example, the European Central Bank is planning to raise rates for the first time in more than a decade next week, by a quarter-point. Inflation remained painfully elevated in June, with the Consumer Price Index climbing 9.1 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1981. The inflation index including food and gas could slow down in July’s data because prices at the pump have moderated in recent weeks.

President Biden Statement on CPI Inflation in June | The White House (The White House)

While today's headline inflation reading is unacceptably high, it is also out-of-date. Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in.

I will continue my historic release of oil from our strategic petroleum reserve. Oil and gas companies must not use this moment as an excuse for profiting by not passing along savings at the pump. Here is what I will do: First, I will continue to do everything I can to bring down the price of gas. Today’s data does not reflect the full impact of nearly 30 days of decreases in gas prices, that have reduced the price at the pump by about 40 cents since mid-June. Those savings are providing important breathing room for American families. Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in inflation.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

June CPI, ETFs, Oil, And Crypto - Bloomberg (Bloomberg)

Sean O'Hara, President of Pacer ETFs, discusses the award-winning COWZ ETF and ETF investing amid inflation and rising interest rates.

Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Economist of Hugh Johnson Economics, talks about the economy and markets in 2022. Vinh Vuong, Chairman and CEO at Garrison Fathom, talks about crypto regulation, blockchain technology, and the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto. Peter McNally, Global Lead - Industrials, Materials, and Energy at Third Bridge, talks about airlines, travel, oil, and Delta earnings.

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Image courtesy of "USA TODAY"

June CPI inflation report: Largest price increases include gas, butter ... (USA TODAY)

CPI breakdown: Some of the largest price increases in June were gas, butter and margarine. Overall inflation hit a new 40-year high of 9.1%

Overall food prices increased by 1% last month, accounting for 10% of the overall price level increase. Bad weather in the U.S. also contributed to softer than usual wheat production. And housing, which rose by 0.8%, accounted for 26% of the overall increase. Cows are producing less milk in part because feeding costs have gone up, the USDA said. Flour prices rose by 5.3% last month, and are up 19.2% over the past 12 months at a nonseasonally adjusted rate. Inflation hit another record high last month.

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Consumer Price Index: June Headline at 9.06% (advisorperspectives.com)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at ...

The food index increased 10.4 percent for the 12-months ending June, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1981. The all items index increased 9.1 percent for the 12 months ending June, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1981. The energy index rose 41.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1980. The food index rose 1.0 percent in June, as did the food at home index. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 9.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food being the largest contributors.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

She's a 9.1 But: Twitter Users Poke Fun at Roaring Inflation (Bloomberg)

When the Labor Department released fresh consumer price index data on Wednesday, observers took to the internet using the latest figure followed by their takes ...

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Stocks, Futures Fall on Hawkish Post-CPI Fed Views: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)

Stocks and US equity futures fell Thursday after sizzling US inflation data buffeted Wall Street, hardening bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary ...

Stocks and US equity futures struggled Thursday after sizzling US inflation data hardened expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening that could lead to a recession.

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Wall St ends down as hot inflation data raises odds of steep Fed rate ... (Reuters)

NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed modestly lower on Wednesday after investors digested hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which fueled ...

read more read more read more Traders of futures tied to the Fed funds target rate have now priced in the probability of a larger, 100 basis point, hike at the conclusion of its policy meeting later this month. read more

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Remained High in June (The New York Times)

The Consumer Price Index rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, defying expectations and further squeezing Americans' budgets.

A so-called “core” inflation index, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to get a better sense of underlying price pressures, picked up by 5.9 percent in June from a year earlier. Food prices continued to be one of the largest contributors to inflation, rising 10.4 percent in the year leading up to June, the biggest annual increase since 1981. Rent-related costs make up nearly a third of the closely tracked Consumer Price Index inflation measure, so anything that helps to keep them climbing at an unusually brisk pace is likely to perpetuate rapid inflation. “The Fed is going to have to slow the economy materially and in a much faster fashion than if inflation was lower or at least starting to respond,” Mr. Ryan said. It’s a clear sign that despite a small moderation in core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, investors are betting that the Fed will remain aggressive in its attempts to pull inflation down by raising interest rates. For example, the European Central Bank is planning to raise rates for the first time in more than a decade next week, by a quarter-point. “People have not done a very good job of predicting car inflation,” said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard. “Beyond that, inflation is about more than 10 individual stories about 10 individual goods and services — it’s about forces in the overall economy.” White House economists did not try to sugar-coat the report, but instead said it showed the need for Congress to pass a pair of bills that President Biden hopes to sign this summer. The price of food sold in office and school cafeterias rose 24 percent in June from the month before. It is also partly because economists have dismissed big price swings in various goods and services as temporary one-offs, and the surprises have just continued to add up. The global economy has been buffeted by a series of shocks that have pushed inflation higher since the outset of the pandemic. But the new inflation report also shows evidence of price pressures that have little to do with global supply.

June CPI Inflation - AAF (American Action Forum)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday released its report on consumer price index (CPI) inflation in June and it was dismal.

From a policy perspective, the report locks in another 75 basis point rise in the Fed’s policy rate at its next meeting (with a 50/50 chance it goes for a full 100 basis points). The White House was out in advance of the report arguing that it would not reflect recent declines in global oil and gasoline prices. Shelter alone is one-third of the CPI, has uninterrupted inflation acceleration since January 2021, and (because of rental contracts) operates with a bit of a lag. Interestingly, health spending – which is a notorious cost problem – is much more moderate: Hospital services were up at a 3.7 percent annual rate, physicians’ services increased by 1.2 percent, and prescription drugs rose at a 1.2 percent rate. The greatest hits are that top-line inflation was 9.1 percent (year-over-year), up from 8.6 percent in May and (as usual) at a four-decade high. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday released its report on consumer price index (CPI) inflation in June and it was dismal. Eakinomics has long stipulated that economists are that breed of human who finds the dark cloud for any silver lining.

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5 key takeaways on inflation, housing, and energy from the June CPI ... (Brookings Institution)

After another month of increasing inflation, experts from Brookings and the Bipartisan Policy Center assess the causes and impacts of higher prices.

The only thing that we’ve learned is during a pandemic, the word transitory means ‘twice as long as we used to think transitory meant.'” Xan Fishman, director of Energy Policy and Carbon Management at the Bipartisan Policy Center, highlighted the importance of energy prices in the CPI. They rose 7.5% in just one month alone, and are up nearly 42% over the past 12 months. Even a mild recession will lead to economic pains for many households, but Edelberg explained why some slowing is necessary. “So we just need to sit tight and we really will see prices come down as what we think the normal factors that should drive inflation down really take hold,” she said. There’s much more demand than supply, and the estimates vary as to what the supply shortage is,” said Shea, ranging from 1.5 to 3.8 million units according to different analyses. Because in every country around the world, in every historical episode, whenever prices rise, wages tend to follow. “By any measure this a lot of inflation, and already we’ve seen financial markets are now putting a 30% chance on the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates a full percentage point at its next meeting,” said Wessel. “So we really need to embrace policies … to increase the supply of homes.” I expected to see big numbers in shelter. You can read five key takeaways below, and listen to the full discussion here. “The only thing that we’ve learned is during a pandemic, the word transitory means ‘twice as long as we used to think transitory meant.'” “The news today was a bit alarming,” said Hutchins Center Director David Wessel, who moderated the discussion.

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