Recession

2022 - 7 - 5

Post cover — Image courtesy of "Business Standard"

Many major economies to hit recession in CY23, says Nomura ... (Business Standard)

The brokerage expects the euro zone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada to fall into recession along with the US.

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These major economies are headed into recession in the next 12 ... (CNBC)

Many of the world's leading economies will fall into a recession within the next 12 months, according to the chief economist at brokerage firm Nomura ...

"The Fed will be tightening into this recession and that's because we see inflation as being sticky — it's going to stay high. "Right now central banks, many of them have shifted to essentially a single mandate — and that's to get inflation down. "Then a series of 25 [basis points] until it gets the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by February next year." - "Right now central banks many of them have shifted to essentially a single mandate and that's to get inflation down. "It's hard to say this nicely... They are at risk of deeper-than-forecast recessions if interest rate hikes trigger housing busts and deleveraging, the report said. Now governments have to play catch up and try to regain control of the inflation narrative, he told CNBC. That's another reason why we think this recession risk is very real and will likely happen," Subbaraman said. It is going to be a shallow recession but a long one. We have been pointing for several months about the risks of a recession and we've bitten the bullet. And now we have many of the developed economies actually falling into recession," he added. Monetary policy credibility is too precious an asset to lose.

Global outlook: Will the US economy avoid a recession? (Economist Intelligence Unit)

In EIU's latest global outlook video, global forecasting director Agathe Demarais, and global economist Cailin Birch, discuss potential triggers for a US ...

EIU forecasts that the US economy will narrowly avoid a technical recession in 2023-24. Find out more about the country’s political and economic outlook in EIU Viewpoint, our new analysis service. Global Outlook: Will the US economy avoid a recession?

Posthaste: Recession coming in next year for Canada and the world ... (Financial Post)

The drumbeats warning of a coming recession are getting louder and more persistent. The toll taken by the rising cost of living and tightening financial ...

If you are aiming for a career in data science learning the fundamentals is a good place to start. Check out the latest episode below: Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? The Canadian Press calculated that the cost of hosting the Canada Day barbecue this year would cost 17% more, bringing the bill for eight adults and eight children up from $257.27 last year to $302.04. If you travelled on the long weekend you faced an even bigger bite out of your budget. The cost of one tank of gas and spending a night in a hotel room has risen to about $317 from about $220 a year ago — nearly 44% higher. Article content Was this newsletter forwarded to you? He argues that increased household savings and wealth, and low unemployment, which is likely to stay low as baby boomers age, will give the economy resilience. But one thing is becoming clear, they said; unlike the first wave of COVID in 2020, the weakness in China’s data in both manufacturing and services looks set to be drawn out. Home sales fell 9% in May from the month before, shaving 0.1% off GDP, he said. Article content Article content

AMW: How will central banks respond to recession risks? | Business ... (Business Research and Insights)

In this Weekly we explore how central banks may respond to rising recession risk and expand upon some of the leading indicators of recession. Our headline ...

As such the Fed is unlikely to fear two quarters of negative growth if labour market indicators remain tight as they are currently. - As for US recession risk, two important indicators for the US are pointing towards elevated recession risk. - In this Weekly we explore how central banks may respond to rising recession risk and expand upon some of the leading indicators of recession. A forecast rise in excess of four tenths may be the catalyst for a more dovish pivot should inflation start to trend lower, and inflation expectations stabilise. - That reluctance to cut would change once the Fed is assured inflation is on a firm downward track and inflation expectations were more anchored. Part of NAB’s rationale for a US recession is Fed tightening to combat inflation.

A recession would be worse in Canada than U.S.: Economist - BNN ... (BNN)

David Doyle, the head of economics at Macquarie Group, said much of it comes down to Canada's economic reliance on the housing market. "When [Canada] has ...

That will be much more severe in Canada than what we foresee in the United States,” he said. The effects of Bank of Canada rate hikes have already begun to cool housing activity. “We think the effect of the recession will be much more severe in terms of the drawdown on GDP growth, in terms of how high unemployment will rise.

At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in Next 12 Months ... (Barron's)

The euro area, the U.K., and Australia will experience economic contraction in the coming year, economists say.

The euro area, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will also see economic growth contract, economists led by Rob Subbaraman wrote in a note. Six major economies will join the U.S. in falling to recession in the coming year, according to new research by At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in the Next 12 Months, Nomura Says