Recession

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman said on Monday that he thinks there is a roughly 50% chance that the U.S. economy ...

He said no one "can accurately predict where inflation will be a year from now." However, if the U.S. were to fall into a recession, he said, it is unlikely to be "deep or long." NEW YORK (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman said on Monday that he thinks there is a roughly 50% chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, speaking at a conference hosted by his firm.

BANK of America's chief financial officer Alastair Borthwick said on Monday (Jun 13) that its loan portfolio was not showing any signs of a looming ...

The bank's CEO reiterates at an investor conference that he expects any U.S. downturn to be mild and short-lived · Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman in 2019. He ...

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There is a 50% chance the U.S. economy will enter a recession though any downturn is unlikely to be severe, Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said on Monday, ...

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com And what we're seeing right now, credit is in great shape," Borthwick said, when asked about asset quality. People's 401(K) plans are going to be down this year," he added, referring to U.S. retirement plans. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com "It's going to be bumpy. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Morgan Stanley chief James Gorman says he is 'totally relaxed', pointing to strength of consumer credit.

A person walks through the Wall Street subway station near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on May 27, 2022. Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images ...

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A surge in bond yields that has rattled global stock and currency markets has gone “too far,” leaving the door open for the Federal Reserve to stun ...

The supply chain and inflation issues that have affected medical device companies in the first half of 2022 likely will persist through the rest of the year ...

With other factors stable, investors are starting to pay more attention to the impact of a potential recession and reduction in capital purchases by hospitals. “If growth concerns persist and odds of a recession increase, we believe companies with exposure to higher acuity, Medicare/Medicaid, domestic sales will be better positioned.” Still, while those headwinds are poised to linger, their impact may be mitigated, they said, adding that they expect the industry to manage the pressures “via second sourcing and inventory build-out.” Supply chain disruption and inflation remain an industry challenge, although the situation may have stabilized, RBC analysts said. This is not terribly surprising but is it still good to see that awareness of the situation.” Faced with a tougher fundraising environment, the William Blair analysts said companies are reconsidering their spending plans.

U.S. stocks sank into bear market territory Monday as Wall Street investors worry about interest rate hikes and inflation.

“But what happens is, it’s harder for companies to do business when interest rates are higher, so their profits shrink, and their stocks go down.” And then all of a sudden, the economy starts heating up, and everybody’s got cabin fever on top of that, so they want to go spend that money. Krier said the actual definition of a recession is just two quarters of shrinking U.S. growth.

James Gorman says chances of a recession are growing, but the contraction will probably be mild.

“I don't think we're falling into a massive hole over the next few years. Other banks including Goldman Sachs and economists like Harvard’s Jason Furman have expressed similar confidence that high consumer spending will be enough to ensure a mild recession, and despite the market frenziness, Gorman says he is confident the Fed can get the situation under control. “The consumer is in much better shape, and employed, importantly.” The revised expectations come as market watchers grow skittish in June over just how far the Federal Reserve will be willing to go to bring down inflation. It’s an uptick from Gorman’s past evaluations of the likelihood of a recession. Wells Fargo chief Charlie Scharf sang a similar tune in May when he said that there was “ no question” the U.S. was headed for an imminent economic recession of some form.

Recession has been lurking in the shadows as inflation chips away at wages and overall consumer confidence. Economists say the narrative changed from when, ...

Financial professionals are warning their clients to hunker down and brace for a recession, which now seems all but certain to many.

If it turns out that economic production declined, the report will answer the question of whether the country is in a recession for most. Balance sheets for both corporations and households are in good shape, and while the stock market is down, most of the losses have been contained to the red-hot tech sector, which industry analysts had long said was overheated. Still, inflation — which makes you feel poorer — is not the same thing as a recession, which is when the economy moves in the wrong direction. Recessions are a normal part of the business cycle. They’re measured by specific economic indicators, like high unemployment — but the presence or absence of those indicators alone isn’t enough. According to Vox, the labor market is strong and job openings are approaching record levels.

The UK economy contracted for the second month in a row in April in the first back-to-back fall since Covid struck in 2020 as the cost-of-living crisis brought ...

Petrol costs have hit new records, with the average cost of filling a typical family car with petrol rising past £100 for the first time last week. "A recession - two quarters of negative growth - remains unlikely,” he said. In the UK, a recession is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. However, there are concerns that more measures will be needed, with inflation already running at 9% in the UK and expected to soar past 10% in the autumn as prices rise steadily higher. Overall, the country's overall economic output declines and can even affect other countries that have strong trade links or are affected by similar issues. During a recession, a number of negative effects may be felt.

The warnings that a recession is coming – including from Tesla CEO Elon Musk and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon – reflect the deep uncertainty being felt in the ...

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Worries about a wage-price spiral are about to be eclipsed by recession fears, writes Desmond Lachman.

Another way in which the stock market can bring on an economic recession is by stressing the financial system. This is the last thing that the U.S. economy needs at a time when consumer confidence has dropped to a record low. Particularly concerning is that the stock market’s decline has not been occurring in isolation. The ongoing stock market decline is now destroying household wealth on a scale that could weigh heavily on consumer and investor sentiment. Similarly impressive has been the size of the stock market’s recent decline. Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that the stock market had predicted nine out of the last five economic recessions.

Make a Financial Plan · Build an Emergency Fund · Develop Your Career · Pro Tip · Expand Your Income Sources.

You can add a level of stability to your finances by diversifying where you earn your income. If someone can generate an extra $5,000 to $10,000 a year to invest, seeing that impact “is more motivating to people,” she says. “You’d be surprised how creative people can get when it comes to that type of thing.” You could be viewed as overqualified and the translation to a hiring manager is this person’s gonna get bored, this person won’t feel challenged, she says. But you don’t need to only focus on paying off debt or building your savings, you can also be investing for the future at the same time. To identify what companies are growing, look for those that are hiring job recruiters, Liou says. Have a plan to help you avoid taking on excessive debt or to pay off your existing debt. Knowing what your income and expenses are and having a clear plan for the money you’re making can help alleviate financial stress. “One of the best things that we can do is … take control of what is within our control,” Liou says. “A lot of the advice that I would normally give applies for this time as well as it does other times,” says Sophia Bera Daigle, CFP and founder of Gen Y Planning, a financial planning firm. The definition of a recession is negative economic growth (as measured by the gross domestic product or GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is six months. The good news is the best financial strategies apply regardless of whether or not we are entering a recession.

Intense market volatility, sour consumer confidence, and downward pressure on income growth all point to an economy that is slowing down. U.S. gross domestic ...

At any point in the cycle—and especially when a recession is on the horizon—it is useful to analyze leading economic indicators for clues as to where the economy is headed. Along with the strength in the aforementioned leading indicators, investors should continue to take note of the energy sphere, as the spike in commodity prices this year has been consistent with prior recessions. At a time when inflation is running hot and asset markets are under pressure, a jump in commodity prices can depress consumer confidence and lead to lower spending. As you can see in the chart below, the value of corporate equities relative to U.S. GDP (known as the "Buffett Indicator" given its historical status as one of investor Warren Buffett's favorite valuation metrics) is well over 200%, slightly off its all-time high but incredibly stretched relative to history. While the drop in valuations and weak performance this year have confirmed both assertions, we'd emphasize that there is more to glean from looking at households' exposure to the overall stock market. Given the rapidity with which the virus drove the world into a recession, trends within the LEI's components were not particularly weak—but to be sure, there was more red and yellow in the trend column vs. The four primary components that the NBER looks at to determine whether the United States is in a recession are—not coincidentally—the four indicators that make up The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI): Individual components shouldn't be looked at in isolation, and their strength in level terms often isn't enough for a comprehensive analysis of inflection points, even in the run-up to recessions. It was the labor and business spending areas that took a bit longer to catch up. To be sure, investors' muscle memory of the past couple recessions paints them in a rather unpleasant light: Both the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 sent shockwaves throughout world asset markets and spawned multiple, lasting crises (different in nature, of course). So the contraction in first-quarter 2022 GDP doesn't necessarily mean a recession is beginning. We think the risk of a recession—sooner rather than later—has picked up.

Despite worries about soaring inflation and higher interest rates, big businesses are still in pretty solid financial shape. Corporate bankruptcy filings in May ...

"Companies have more of a focus on profitability and controlling costs. There does appear to be a mismatch in retail inventories that is hurting stores. "Recessions are mechanisms to purge excesses, but there haven't been a lot that have built up. It's also important to recognize that companies shouldn't be caught off guard by the current economic jitters. "Unlike in 2008 and prior recessions, there is still a strong labor market. Businesses still see a good economic picture even though there is this backdrop of negative news," said Frank Sorrentino, CEO of ConnectOne Bank ( CNOB)