CPI

2022 - 6 - 13

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Image courtesy of "Moneycontrol.com"

CPI inflation at 7.04% in May, meets consensus estimates (Moneycontrol.com)

India's headline retail inflation rate eased to 7.04 percent in May from April's near-eight-year high of 7.79 percent thanks to a favourable base effect, ...

The RBI has increased the repo rate by 90 basis points so far in FY23 to 4.90 percent. The base effect also dragged down core inflation - or inflation excluding food and fuel. This dwarfed the 0.9 percent rise posted by the index last month, helping pull down inflation sharply. The MPC is deemed to have failed when average CPI inflation is outside the 2-6 percent tolerance band for three consecutive quarters. More worryingly, it has now spent five months above the 6 percent upper bound of the 2-6 percent tolerance range. MAY 2022 INFLATION Both the sequential price increases were as expected. In May, this measure of inflation - seen as an indicator of underlying demand in the economy - plummetted to 6.2 percent from 7.0 percent in April. CPI inflation has now been above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 percent for 32 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the impact of the excise duty cut for petrol and diesel announced on May 21 is expected to be felt in the inflation data for June. The fall in inflation in May is unlikely to do much to slow down the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate hike cycle. India's headline retail inflation rate eased to 7.04 percent in May from April's near-eight-year high of 7.79 percent thanks to a favourable base effect, according to data released on June 13 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

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Image courtesy of "Business Standard"

May CPI inflation cools down to 7.04% from eight-year high in April (Business Standard)

Lower number comes on the back of cheaper food and utility items, is still above MPC's medium-term target for fifth straight month.

More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better and more relevant content. As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed and updated with credible news, authoritative views and incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance. Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information and commentary on developments that are of interest to you and have wider political and economic implications for the country and the world. Meat and fish inflation was at 8.23% while that of fuel and light was almost at 10%. “However, favourable base effect will start tapering off from June 2022 till November/December 2022, but impact of duty cuts, ban on wheat exports and normal monsoon may provide some comfort on the inflationary front. Inflation of eggs and pulses and products came down substantially, at -4.6% and -0.46% respectively. “Besides the base effect, the impact of lowering of taxes by the centre earlier did play out to a certain extent to lower inflation. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed. The Indian crude basket, despite having more share of Russian supplies, has touched a 10-year high of $121 a barrel. It was still the fifth straight month of headline retail inflation being above the Monetary Policy Committee’s medium term target of 4 (+/-2)%, thus justifying the two recent interest rate hikes by the central bank. Consumer Price Index

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Image courtesy of "CNBCTV18"

India's consumer price inflation for May might drop to 7.01 ... (CNBCTV18)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May will be released at 5:30 pm on Monday. A CNBC-TV18 poll estimates India's May CPI to ease from an ...

The range for core CPI is expected to be between 5.8 percent and 6.7 percent. Also, the April IIP was high due to the low base in April 2021, which saw a deadly COVID-19 wave driven by the Delta variant. However, the range for both CPI and Core CPI is wide. The range for CPIis expected to be between 6.86 percent and 7.27 percent. The core CPI is estimated at 6.2 percent versus 7 percent month-on-month. The very high 0.63 percent month-on-month (MoM) increase in core inflation was another surprise.

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Image courtesy of "Axios"

Rising food prices are changing the way we eat and shop (Axios)

Skyrocketing food prices in the U.S. are changing the way Americans eat and grocery shop — they're buying more store brands, and less costly meat and ...

- Food is a big expense, especially for those on the lower end of the income spectrum. - Boxes of Post Honey Bunches of Oats now contain 17% less cereal, accordingConsumer World, a website run by a former Massachusetts assistant attorney general who tracks shrinkflation. The most inflationary categories, as highlighted in a note from JPMorgan on Friday: Go deeper: About half of shoppers who've noticed the rising prices are looking for more deals, according to a May survey from FMI, the food industry trade group; 35% are switching to store brands and 21% are buying less fresh meat and seafood. Some are now just making do with less. Skyrocketing food prices in the U.S. are changing the way Americans eat and grocery shop — they're buying more store brands, and less costly meat and produce.

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Image courtesy of "BQ Prime"

CPI Inflation Eases In May On Supportive Base Effect (BQ Prime)

India's retail inflation fell to 7.04% in May from an eight-year high of 7.8% in April, helped by a supportive base effect. Sequentially, price increases ...

Timely monsoon should help in cooling down food inflation further though some volatility is always inherent given the seasonality factor," said Suman Chowdhury, chief analytical officer at Acuité Ratings & Research. Oil and fats saw a further 1.45% increase in prices. Among non-food categories, clothing and footwear prices continued to rise, up 1% month-on-month. India's retail inflation fell to 7.04%in May from an eight-year high of 7.8% in April, helped by a supportive base effect. Inflation in meat and fish was at 8.23% compared with 6.97% in April. India's retail inflation fell to 7.04% in May from an eight-year high of 7.8% in April, helped by a supportive base effect. Inflation in oils and fats was at 13.26% compared with 17.28% in April. Housing inflation stood at 3.71% compared with 3.47% in April. Pulses inflation was at -0.42% compared with 1.86% in May. Fuel and light inflation stood at 9.54% in May against 10.8% in April. Inflation in food and beverages was at 7.97% in May compared with 8.31% in April. Rural inflation eased to 7.01% from 8.38% the previous month, while urban inflation was stable at 7.08%. Sequentially, the pace of price increases remained elevated with the consumer price inflation index rising 0.94% over a month ago, even though it eased compared to the 1.43% increase seen in April.A Bloomberg poll pegged May CPI inflation at 7.1%.Inflation in food and beverages was at 7.97% in May compared with ...

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Image courtesy of "BW Businessworld"

CPI Inflation Cools To 7.04% In May From 7.79 In April: Data (BW Businessworld)

The central bank on June 8 hiked the inflation estimate by 100 basis points to 6.7 per cent in 2022-23 from 5.7 per cent in April with Q1 at 7.5 per cent; ...

The May 2022 CPI inflation printed mildly higher than our forecast (6.9 per cent) led by food and beverages, fuel and light, and clothing and footwear, while that for miscellaneous items trailed our expectation, offering some relief in light of the relatively stronger demand momentum seen for the services segment." Overall we expect CPI inflation to average 6.5 per cent, although risks remain on the upside depending on the evolving geopolitical and global tightening process. Further passthrough of input prices by producers, oil price trajectory, momentum in services prices, the evolution of supply chain issues and private consumption demand will continue to define the inflation trajectory." We expect the 1QFY23 average at 7.3 per cent— lower than RBIs recently upward aggressive revised reading of 7.5 per cent. The war in Ukraine is lingering and India is facing new challenges every day, accentuating supply chain problems." The consumer price index (CPI) inflation has now been above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent for 32 consecutive months.

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Image courtesy of "Business Today"

India's retail inflation eases to 7.04% in May, but remains above RBI ... (Business Today)

India's retail inflation slipped marginally to 7.04 per cent in the month of May, but stayed well above the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India's ...

We thus, do not see India’s inflation cooling down in the near term and in such a scenario maintaining the strength of domestic demand will be crucial from policy perspective," added Vivek Rathi, Director-Research Knight Frank India. This along with the some cuts in import duties on a few imported food products, moderation in vegetable oil prices globally should help ease domestic edible oil prices months ahead. "The narrowing gap between WPI and CPI further highlights the pass through of input costs rise from producers to consumers; as evident in elevated core inflation of 6.2%; which is still high; albeit with slight moderation. On Monday, the Indian rupee slumped below 78 against the US dollar dragged by foreign fund outflows amid selloffs in the stock markets. “The high frequency mandi prices so far depict some respite in sequential gains. The CPI-based inflation stood at 7.79 per cent in April, 6.95 per cent in March, 6.07 per cent in February and 6.01 per cent in January. The inflation rate stood at 6.30 per cent in May 2021.

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Image courtesy of "World Grain"

US CPI for cereals and bakery products climbs (World Grain)

WASHINGTON, DC, US — The Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products increased 1.6% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the ...

The CPI for other bakery products in May was 318, up 2% from April and up 13.4% from May 2021. The May index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 335, up 3.1% from April and up 11.8% from May 2021. The CPI for cereals and cereal products in May was 263.8, up 1.9% from April and up 12.8% from May 2021. Under this heading, the CPI for white bread was 379.3, up 0.6% from April and up 8.1% from May 2021. The price index for fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in May was 205.6, down 0.2% from April but up 9.7% from May 2021. The May index for Cereals and Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 319.9% of the 1982-84 average, up 11.6% from a year ago. The overall food index also was much stronger than a year ago, posting a 10.1% year-over-year increase. For bread other than white, the index was 412.4, up 0.4% from April and up 9.2% from a year ago. The May index for bread was 210.3, up 0.5% from April and up 8.7% from May 2021. The price index for bakery products in May was 352.3, up 1.5% from April and up 11.1% from May 2021. The index for products within this category included: flour and prepared mixes, 274.3, up 2.1% from April and up 13.7% from the previous year; breakfast cereal, 256, up 1.3% from the previous month and up 12.2% from a year ago; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 275.4, up 2.5% from April and up 12.8% from May 2021. For all food at home, the May index was 285.9, up 11.9% from May 2021.

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Image courtesy of "The Economist"

Inflation in America may be even worse than thought (The Economist)

Changes to the construction of the consumer-price index have distorted comparisons | Graphic detail.

The historical statistics may be providing false comfort by suggesting that the Fed was then fighting a much worse inflation problem than today’s. The authors warn that hitting the 2% inflation target will require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Volcker. ■ It produced a volatile measure of housing inflation that fluctuated with interest rates (increasing sharply during tightening cycles and falling in easing ones). In 1983 the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) switched to a new method for calculating the CPI that relied on estimates of what homeowners would earn if they rented out their homes, a measure known as owners’ equivalent rent. Current inflation levels are thus closer to historical peaks than the official data would suggest. To understand how this change may have distorted historical inflation, the paper’s authors, Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer, and Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, reconstructed the CPI for the period between 1946 and 1983 using the BLS’s current method for estimating housing costs. Paul Volcker, who presided over the Fed during the Great Inflation, tamed the beast only by pushing the economy into a deep recession. Consumer prices in May were 8.6% higher than a year earlier—the greatest increase since 1981.

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